Around My Place XII

These are photos that I took on or around my property between August 2 and November 5, 2010. They were originally posted in my Picture Gallery, and then as space ran out, I moved them over here to this blog rather than simply deleting them to make space for new pictures. The comments shown below originally were attached to those photos. In some cases, the comments are disjointed. This is because as people delete their Wireclub accounts, their comments leave with them.

Picture #01: The unopened flower of an Amaryllis belladonna emerges (#1 of seven)
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: This flower came up, grew to about half a yard/meter, and bloomed in little over a week. Anyone know what it's called?
> lumu81 says August 14: Ok so i flicked through the pics the wrong way, but i love the flower timeline! I'm quite sure its a lily of some sort
> StuckInTheSixties says October 23: Thanks to Phoenix67, this flower has a name. This is Amaryllis belladonna, also known as the Belladonna Lily or Naked Ladies. Thank you, Phoenix67!

Picture #02: A bloom of an Amaryllis belladonna begins to open (#2 of seven)
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Picture #03: A bloom of an Amaryllis belladonna continues to open (#3 of seven)
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Picture #04: One of the blooms of an Amaryllis belladonna opens (#4 of seven)
> Karma says August 14: Some form of lily
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: Likely. It grows from a large bulb, a big one, about halfway between apple and cantalope size.

Picture #05: Multiple blooms of an Amaryllis belladonna are opening (#5 of seven)
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Picture #06: Most of the blooms of an Amaryllis belladonna have opened (#6 of seven)
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Picture #07: The Amaryllis belladonna has fully opened all of its blooms (#7 of seven)
> SABLES says August 14: out of the dry dessert there rises a lily
> lumu81 says August 14: gorgeous!! One of my favourite flowers
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: What's it called!?! What's it called!?!

Picture #08: Blacktailed Deer relaxing in the trees (#1 of five)
> MissCellaneous says August 22: Ahh Phalula She's so pretty

Picture #09: Blacktailed Deer relaxing in the trees (#2 of five)
> badgirl___72 says August 22: wow thats amazing to be able to see the deer and to be able to take a pic as well
> Karma says August 22:

Picture #10: Blacktailed Deer relaxing in the trees (#3 of five)
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Picture #11: Blacktailed Deer relaxing in the trees and pooping (#4 of five)
> MissCellaneous says August 22: Phalula: "OMG Smirky.... you scared the sh!t outta me!"
> SABLES says August 22: lols these are a repeat aren't they?
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: These are new photos, taken August 20, 2010.

Picture #12: Blacktailed Deer relaxing in the trees (#5 of five)
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Picture #13: Strange weed/wildflower (#1 of four)
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Picture #14: Strange weed/wildflower (#2 of four)
> SABLES says August 14: lol what are they SIts

Picture #15: Strange weed/wildflower (#3 of four)
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Picture #16: Strange weed/wildflower (#4 of four)
> SABLES says August 14: remind me of hens and chicks but don't have the blades under them
> Musician says October 04: Try putting that in your pipe and shmoke it!

Picture #17: What kind of poop do you think this is?
> lumu81 says August 14: deer? I would of said squirrel, but that would be one monster turd from a squirrel, It would of exploded it!!
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: It's not deer. Deer poop is in little round pellets, about pea size, kind of like rabbits, but rounder. And it's not rabbit poop. Rabbit poop looks kind of like raisens. I have a pretty good idea, but I'm not quite sure. I definitely can narrow it down to a handful of the local critters. Oh, to give it scale, if you held that poop in your hand, it would go from your fingertips to nearly the heel of your palm.
> badgirl___72 says August 22: i cant believe i am lookin at crap what about a squirrel poop ? or raccoon
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: That turd is WAY too big for a squirrel.
> beamer67ca says October 27: Bear
> StuckInTheSixties says October 27: (laughs) There's no bears around here.

Picture #18: Photo taken from my porch during a rainstorm
> Karma says October 24: Cool

Picture #19: Ripening Apples (#1 of four)
> Karma says August 22: Nice

Picture #20: Ripening Apples (#2 of four)
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Picture #21: Ripening Apples (#3 of four)
> SABLES says August 22: look like fuji or gala
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: I don't know what variety, but they're not very sweet. They're a little too sour for just eating, but work well in pies, where you can add sugar.
> Karma says August 22: Great photo

Picture #22: Ripening Apples (#4 of four)
> Karma says August 22: Nice

Picture #23: Sunset
> RUBY says October 10: love it
> WittyPup says October 10:
> SABLES says October 10: nice!

Picture #24: Interesting clouds as daylight fades at the end of the day
> Karma says November 07:

Around Napa Valley XII

These are photos that I took around Napa Valley, where I live. They were originally posted in my Picture Gallery, and then as space ran out, I moved them over here to this blog rather than simply deleting them in lieu of new pictures. There were enough photos in this category for me to split this into two separate blogs of thirty photos each. The photos were taken during a period from July 5 to October 29, 2010. The comments shown below originally were attached when they were posted in the gallery. In some cases, the comments are disjointed. This is because as people delete their Wireclub accounts, their comments leave with them.


Picture #01: Vineyards southwest of Napa (#1 of three)
> Karma says August 02: Lovely
> SABLES says August 02: I love the shots that show the rows, nice and neat
> StuckInTheSixties says August 02: I got this vantage by placing a small stepladder (that I carry in the trunk of my car just for this purpose) up against a roadside highway sign and climbing up the ladder so that my camera was a little less than three yards/meters above the ground.

Picture #02: Vineyards southwest of Napa (#2 of three)
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Picture #03: Vineyards southwest of Napa with pond (#3 of three)
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Picture #04: Hillside vineyard southwest of Napa (#1 of three)
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Picture #05: Hillside vineyard southwest of Napa (#2 of three)
> SABLES says August 02: looks so lush

Picture #06: Hillside vineyard with cyclists southwest of Napa (#3 of three)
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Picture #07: Lavender wildflowers and grapevines (#1 of three)
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Picture #08: Lavender wildflowers and grapevines (#2 of three)
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Picture #09: Lavender wildflowers and grapevines (#3 of three)
Karma says August 02:

Picture #10: Napa Valley Country Club (#1 of six)
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Picture #11: Napa Valley Country Club (#2 of six)
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Picture #12: Lining up a putt at Napa Valley Country Club (#3 of six)
> SABLES says August 09: lol you even make a pic of golfing look great SIts lol
> StuckInTheSixties says August 09
I had driven by this course a number of times, thinking about Karma, who likes playing golf. So this time I stopped and walked along the road bordering the course, taking a number of shots.

Picture #13: On to the next hole at Napa Valley Country Club (#4 of six)
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Picture #14: Golfer chipping onto the green at Napa Valley Country Club (#5 of six)
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Picture #15: He overshot and almost went into the bunker at Napa Valley Country Club (#6 of six)
> Karma says August 07: How long have you been a member?
> StuckInTheSixties says August 07: Was that some sort of insult?
> Karma says August 07: No. An insult would have been, "How long have you been a tool?"
> StuckInTheSixties says August 07:
> Karma says August 07: Or I might have commented, "You seem like a guy who knows his way around a putz."
> StuckInTheSixties says August 07: Hahahaha! Stop it!
> Karma says August 07:

Picture #16: Hillside vineyard southwest of Napa\
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Picture #17: Vineyards southwest of Napa
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Picture #18: Some variety of Sunflower?
> Karma says August 07:
> SABLES says August 09: funny how sunflowers make you smile!

Picture #19: I know this is juvenile, but ... hee hee hee ... "Welcome ... BEAVERS!" Hahaha!
> badgirl___72 says August 22: hahahahahaha i cant see the beavers not that i looked of course
> Karma says August 22: I get the double entendre, but what is this really about?
> SABLES says August 22: giggle giggle
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: It was some sort of convention for "Beavers," whatever they are, that was being down the street at Silverado Resort. I was driving into town, saw that banner, and had to stop and take the picture. I'm guessing "Beavers" are some sort of club or something.
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: I love Google! A search on "Silverado Resort Beavers" turned up information on "The Beavers - A Heavy Engineering Construction Association (they build dams, hence "beavers" ), and their "2010 Beaverdilly" (that sounds even DIRTIER!) at Silverado Resort August 18-19.

Picture #20: Vineyards southwest of Napa
> SABLES says August 09: nice!

Picture #21: Vineyard south of Napa
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Picture #22: Statue at Vista Point, south of Napa (#1 of two)
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Picture #23: Statue at Vista Point, south of Napa (#2 of two)
> Karma says August 14: Napa-ians are too refined to stomp on the grapes with their bare cowboy feet?
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: You want one of my toenails in your next glass of Zinfandel? And were're called Napkins. (not really)
> Karma says August 14: HA!
> Karma says August 14: I hope you're sanitary Napkins.
> lumu81 says August 14:hahahaha karma!

Picture #24: Archery targets
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Picture #25: Cabernet Sauvignon vines at harvest time (#1 of three)
> WittyPup says October 10: Great photo
> SABLES says October 10: wow nice one Sits!
> shells333 says October 10: Wine on the vine?
> Teece4 says October 26: Yum!!!

Picture #26: Cabernet Sauvignon grapes at harvest time (#2 of three)
> WittyPup says October 10: Makes me crave grapes

Picture #27: Cabernet Sauvignon vines at harvest time (#3 of three)
> badgirl___72 says October 10: i like this one its nature at its best
> SABLES says October 10: beautiful!

Picture #28: Scary-looking biker on his ... "chopper" (#1 of two)
> tcg eh! says August 22: http://www.youtube.com/watch v=xm5DPlNCmtk&feature=search
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: I was sitting there at the light when he rolled up next to me, looking totally like a biker dude, but pedaling. I had to laugh. Fortunately, the camera was right there on the car seat, and I quickly snapped off the picture through the windshield. Unfortunately, the light went to green before I could open the car door, step out, and take the picture properly.

Picture #29: Scary-looking biker on his ... "chopper" (#2 of two)
> StuckInTheSixties says August 22: He's a "green" biker dude.

Picture #30: A rather large pumpkin displayed at a house down the road from me
> MissCellaneous says November 01: The pumpkin's name is Trevor.
> StuckInTheSixties says November 01: (laughs)
> Karma says November 01: Quite the gourd.
> KIXX66 says November 02
> badgirl___72 says November 05: thats a lotta soup

Previously Posted Printscreens V

Below are PrintScreens that were originally posted in my Picture Gallery between April 24 and November 15, 2010. As space ran out in the gallery, rather than simply deleting pictures to make room for new ones, I’ve moved these over here to this blog. The comments shown below originally were attached to those PrintScreens after they were first posted. These comments, in some cases, may appear disjointed. This is because some of the people who posted them later deleted their accounts and their comments disappeared as a consequence.


Picture #01: (the caption is on the photo)
> RUBY says April 24: who do you love on wire?where the fu.ck is my found it remove perves from wire and your relationship status ... hahahaha i find that 1 funny
> CYCLONE_FAN says April 24: Allen mayes joined remove pervs from wire! Now that’s funny I dont care who u are!
> StuckInTheSixties says April 24: This should be fun watching different people speculate about just what it is that I found funny!
> RUBY says April 24: did 1 of us guess?
> StuckInTheSixties says April 24: I won't say. I said I wouldn't, and I won't. (laughs)
> RUBY says April 25: but i'm curious to know now
> StuckInTheSixties says April 25: Hahaha! Mission accomplished!
> RUBY says April 25:
> StuckInTheSixties says April 25: Aww ... it ain't that bad! Just a little pointless mystery!
>antonov3andahalf says April 25: i like the one that says "v for vendetta and rebuttal"
> antonov3andahalf says April 25: OH oh and "remove pervs from wire and your relationship status"

Picture #02: WireGlitch
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Picture #03: Oops! Hahahaha!
> badgirl___72 says May 08: hahahahahahahahahahahahaha@epicfail hahahahahahahahahaha
> _Safira_ says May 09: lol what a veggie
> lois_lane says May 09: I thought I new this person.

Picture #04: I get quad aces/king kicker with my poker simulator
> StuckInTheSixties says May 23: Quiz: How many possible poker hands are superior to this?

Picture #05: A PrintScreen from the poker simulation program I have
> StuckInTheSixties says June 27: Quiz for poker players: In this simulated hand of Texas Holdem, Callie just folded to Reilly. This signifies something very interesting. What does it signify?
> Karma says June 27: There's no way Reilly should have been in the hand until the end. And Callie is a dunce to fold.
> StuckInTheSixties says June 28: Reilly playing 4S-6S is a pretty ridiculous bluff. But Callie folding made no sense whatsoever. Those five cards on the board make an unbeatable hand under any circumstances, thus any active player would get a piece of the pot. The program is flawed. By the way, Reilly's playing that ridiculous bluff is at least somewhat accounted for by my having the program set for "aggressive" play. And I've actually seen Tom Dwan get away with absurd plays like that on TV. Quite often, actually.

Picture #06: Cover Boy
> 1calmstorm says May 23: LOVE IT!
> lumu81 says May 23: hahahahaha stool softeners *snort*
> StuckInTheSixties says May 23: Hahaha! It was that or denture adhesive! Stool softener was grosser, so I went with it!
> badgirl___72 says May 24: hahahahahahahahahahaha thats cool
> glowingtoad says May 24: lmao !! love it stucky x
> SABLES says May 25: snicker snicker
> CYCLONE_FAN says May 26: Haha nice
> ~Chloey~x says October 10: Thats good!!!!

Picture #07: Do you have any Wingtips, size 9, with not too much mileage on them?
> lois_lane says June 12
HAHAHA I was totally going to comment in there too but I couldnt even be funny at that point you know LOLS!!!
> SABLES says June 13: :faceplam:
> Musician says July 10: I want some clogs.
> StuckInTheSixties says July 10: So drop her a message!SHOESFROMTHEUSA

Picture #08: Are you his friend?
> aleeshaNOTaliterate says August 14: lol
> SABLES says August 14: uhuh and keeps in touch on a daily basis, obvious does not have a life
> StuckInTheSixties says August 14: He's a friend collector. A numbers guy.
> rainbowtreat says August 15: well it is a bar he has to make money right? I dont think any bar would be able to hold that many people, the fire marshall would shut him down lol
> StuckInTheSixties says August 15: He does have a classy lookin' sign ...

Picture #09: Mr. Lonely's Home Page
> badgirl___72 says October 10: but ima online
> StuckInTheSixties says October 10: You are now, but you weren't then.
> shells333 says October 10: Don't be lonely Stu. I'm lonely enough for the both of us !

Picture #10: Weird WireGlitch (#1 of three)
> StuckInTheSixties says October 10: This happened when I was here in my Picture Gallery, with a picture selected, and I attempted to go back to the gallery.
> badgirl___72 says October 10: thats just weird
> Dawn says October 10: that happened to me too

Picture #11: Weird WireGlitch (#2 of three)
> RUBY says October 10:
Picture #12: Weird WireGlitch (#3 of three)
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Picture #13: I got three of these things within the space of a day or two (#1 of three)
> SABLES says October 10: oi vay
> Teece4 says October 26: Lols........... yup, its that photo of yours!!

Picture #14: I got three of these things within the space of a day or two (#2 of three)
> StuckInTheSixties says October 10: Note the mobile phone number she wants me to contact: 35338 ... and take a look at the next picture.

Picture #15: I got three of these things within the space of a day or two (#3 of three)
> badgirl___72 says October 10: bahahahahahahahaha
> StuckInTheSixties says October 10: Note the mobile phone number she wants me to contact: 35338 ... and take a look at the previous picture.
> SABLES says October 10: obviously you would be charged
> Teece4 says October 26: Gawd!!

Picture #16: It's been a little while since I got hit up this way!
> shells333 says August 08: LOL! Is this for real Stu? WOW.
> StuckInTheSixties says August 08: Yeah, it's quite real. I get those things all the time. I know what they do. They do a Wireclub search for man in specific age groups (older). And then they just go down that list and paste that message in over and over and over again. (Notice that the message doesn't contain anything specific to me, like my name.) They don't get many responses, but they get enough to make it worth while. angeliquepink is a workin' girl. Hahahaha!
> StuckInTheSixties says August 08: In fact, another supposedly pretty girl is hitting on me! On my Home Page was, of course, the notification that you commented here, shells. And of course. I answered it. I thenk went back to my Home Page, and two items lower on it was a Friends Request for one "hotassvalarie23". ( Whomever it is in the profile pic is, indeed, a hotass. Hahahaha! ) Her profile says: "I am chatting with friends on ym.. valariekasia" Note the reference to "ym" (yaahoo messenger). I'll go ahead and click "accept," and likely, I'll get a further flirtatious message wanting me to talk to her via messenger. That's where the business proposal, and the request for a credit card number, would be made.
> SABLES says August 09: lucky you didn't just fall off a turnip truck today eh? lol
> StuckInTheSixties says August 09: Even a turnip would know this is a ploy.

Picture #17: Yet another "romantic" overture ...
> RUBY says October 18: hahhahaha
> Zhya says October 18: At least she tried.
> StuckInTheSixties says October 18: I get so many of these. It's obviously a scam of some sort, probably with the aim of somehow getting a credit card number. The tone of the content, and the length of the the "overture" is always about the same. I think it's one single person.
> Teece4 says October 26: Gee, I don't know Sits, maybe its just your gorgeous photo and oozing charm that is attracting them?
> StuckInTheSixties says October 26: (laughs) No, I think it's likely that I'm in a target age group.

Picture #18: I'm sure there's an ulterior motive at work here ...
> SABLES says November 15: lol they just crawl out of the woodwork after you Sits must be the smell of money
> StuckInTheSixties says November 15: It's the combination of my gender and age. They send this out a zillion times, and if one strikes, it's worth the effort.
> Teece4 says November 15: Hmmmmm, I reckon it must be the beard.................
> badgirl___72 says November 16: hahahahaha i agree with teece it has to be the beard
> StuckInTheSixties says November 16: Nah, they would have to actually look at who I am. They only thing being looked at is nationality, gender and age.

Picture #19: Note the wording of the pitch and compare to sherygreg's in the next picture
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Picture #20: Note the wording of the pitch and compare to katedenis' in the previous picture
> SABLES says November 08: lololing....
> StuckInTheSixties says November 08: I think I must be in a "target group."
> antonov3andahalf says November 08: They seem to think that since Mrs. Clause died in that unfortunate "accident" you need a new partner (how do you think Santa has been paying his elves all these years?)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Picture #21: Oops! Someone can't spell!
> SABLES says October 10: lols at Tim Horton's they had a sign up that was supposed to say sorry for the inconvenience...but it read sorry for the incontinence I pointed it out, they said they had to leave it up because no one was there to do another on the computer

Picture #22: Scam Letter Part One
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Picture #23: Scam Letter Part Two
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Picture #24: Political Campaign Season #1: Campaign ad that appeared in my Wireclub mail inbox
> StuckInTheSixties says October 18: (laughs) I was looking at it and thinking the same thing!

Picture #25: Anyone care for a nice tasty bowl of pooh?
> WittyPup says October 10: Pooh tacos
> StuckInTheSixties says October 10: MMMMM! Pooh! It's even got little lumps in it! Savory!
> Teece4 says October 26: Hahahaha!! Yummmmm!

Picture #26: Mod Mod Mod (#1 of two)
> StuckInTheSixties says October 25
Late at night ... no friends around except for three who are all mods.

Picture #27: Mod Mod Mod Mod (#2 of two)
> StuckInTheSixties says October 25: A few minutes later, three grow to four. A mod convention on my home page.
> Teece4 says October 26: Hahahaha!! What are the chances eh?

I'm Thinking Of Becoming A Wireclub Moderator

There's a number of prerequisites for being a mod, let's examine them:

1. You must have no adult content on your profile/blog.

>>>>> Crap! I was just about to post a Photo-blog, with all the naughty pictures I've managed to persuade people to send me, called "My Nekkid Wireclub Friends" ...

2. You must agree that all your messages will be recorded at all times - it is bye bye privacy.

>>>>> Oh Jeezus! No more cybersex ?!?!?! F@*@! What's the point in being here?!?!

3. You must agree to behave at all times - that means never curse and never get into fights.

>>>>> Fy^~ that shit! No cursing and no fighting?!?!? Next thing you know they're gonna ask that we have to be nice to those stupid idiotic newbies when they aski stupid idiotic questions ...

4. You must agree to always be nice to the newcomers, even when they ask silly questions.

>>>>> Erm ... gack! ... cough cough ...

5. You must agree to not protect your friends - if they misbehave you must take action!

>>>>> That one's not too hard. I'd love to wield power indiscriminately amongst my friends and cause them to tremble in fear at my omnipotent power when I enter Wireclub! I have some real grudges to settle too!

7. You must agree to never act on personal reasons - you should only ever kick spammers and bullies.

>>>>> Shit! What's the fun in that?!?

8. Being a mod is not a job, you must still have fun while on Wireclub.

>>>>> Not a job? You mean I'm not gonna be paid? Money?


Okay. So much for the idea of becoming a Mod. That settles the issue. I hereby declare:

I am NOT considering becoming a Wireclub Moderator.

A Day Late, Yet Right On Time ... Happy Birthday, Darling!

Today ... erm ... yesterday ... is umm ... was ... NoSecondPrize's big fortieth Birthday. I'd been aware of this, and looking forward to saying "Happy Birthday, Darling!" in a blog as I have done before. Lucy beat me to the punch, and in the process, I realized that I although I remembered the date, I forgot that damned International Date Line!



Dammit! It's her birthday here and now, but for her, there in Australia, it was yesterday!

Dammit! Why isn't the Earth flat? Then we wouldn't have this problem!

At any rate ...

Happy Birthday, Darling! I love you and always will!

Answer To "An Interesting Quiz Thingy"

First, here is the quiz again:

Four identical sealed envelopes are on a table. One contains a $100 bill. (The envelopes are heavy - there is no way to tell which one contains the bill without opening it.)

You are allowed to select an envelope at random without opening it and hold onto it.

Two of the remaining envelopes are then removed, and set aside, remaining sealed. You are told (truthfully) that those neither of those envelopes contains the bill.

You are now given the choice to either keep the envelope you are holding, or to trade it for the envelope remaining on the table.

What should you do?

A. Keep the envelope you are holding

B. Trade for the envelope on the table

C. It doesn't matter.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The correct answer is:

B. Trade for the envelope on the table

Here's why:

First, it helps to think of playing this game repeatedly.

You start with a random 25% (1 in four) chance of choosing the correct envelope with the $100 bill, and a 75% (3 in four) of choosing incorrectly.

Then two empty envelopes are withdrawn. It's important to understand that these two envelopes are withdrawn with the knowledge that they are empty, and that this information has been conveyed to you.

So if the $100 bill is in any of the three envelopes you didn't initially choose, which it is 75% of the time, you'll get it by switching. That is to say that if you switch envelopes every time you play the game, you always have a 75% chance of getting it, and if you hold onto it, you will be staying with the 25% chance you started with. What skews the odds is the knowledge that the two envelopes withdrawn are empty. If two envelopes were withdrawn randomly, without consideration of whether they empty or not, then your odds of receiving the $100 bill would be the same if you switched or not: 25%.

This is an interesting little psychological experiment. Most people, me included, intuitively think that it's a 50/50 chance, since either you are holding the $100 bill, or the envelope remaining holds it. For me, while common sense obviously suggested that the newspaper I read this in wasn't going to purposefully provide an incorrect quiz, and the math is undeniable logical, the intuitive perception was so strong that I was compelled to actually simulate the scenario where the hypothetical player always chooses to switch envelopes.

I did this with a deck of playing cards, a piece of paper and a pencil.

I conceptually divided the cards into four groups:

Group A: Ace/2/3
Group B: 4/5/6
Group C: 7/8/9
Group D: 10/Jack/Queen

(I discarded the kings.)

Each "group" of cards represents one of the four envelopes.

I shuffled the cards, and began flipping them over one by one, with the card revealed to represent which of the envelopes the $100 bill was actually in. I tallied this in a column on the paper. As you can see in the picture, the column is labeled "The bill is in."

I then reshuffled the deck, and repeated the procedure, this time with the card revealed to represent the envelope that the hypothetical player would initially choose. I tallied this in a second column, labeled "Player chooses."

Next, I added a third column on the tally sheet. In this column, I listed the envelopes that did not contain the $100, and were withdrawn. (Note: As I was tallying this column, the light bulb clicked on over my head. I’ll explain below.) I labeled this column “Empty envelopes withdrawn.”

Next, I made a fourth column in which I listed the envelope which the hypothetical player traded for. I labeled it “Player trades for.”

Finally, I made a fifth column, in which I listed whether or not the hypothetical player would win or lose after making the switch. The column is labeled “Win of Lose.”

The individual “games” are numbered 1 through 30. (I figured 30 would be enough.)

When adding that third column, as I said, I began to understand the scenario more clearly. The reason is that it became readily apparent that in most cases, the two envelopes to be withdrawn and revealed as being empty were immediately evident because of the scenarios determined by the procedure that resulted in the first two columns. In most cases, the envelope the bill was in (first column) and the envelope chosen (second column) differed, which left the envelopes withdrawn as the two remaining envelopes. In only a few cases, the envelopes listed in the first and second columns matched (meaning that the hypothetical player’s initial choice was correct).

Examine Game #1:

The bill was in Envelope A, and the hypothetical player initially chose Envelope B, which means that the withdrawn empty envelopes have to be C and D. Player switches envelopes, and wins.

Examine Game #2:

The bill was in Envelope B, and the hypothetical player also chose Envelope B, as well. That leaves three empty envelopes remaining. (Although unnecessary, to remain “honest” to the test, I again used the playing cards to determine which envelopes were designated as being withdrawn.) The empty envelopes withdrawn were A and D. The hypothetical player switches his Envelope B (with the $100) for Envelope C, and loses.

As I tallied the third column, it quickly became apparent that only in the cases where the envelope was the same in both of the first two columns would the player lose by switching envelopes. I continued the tallies, and finished the tally sheet so that I could see what the actual numbers it this experiment would result in. With 30 individual games, the result was 22 wins and 8 loses, a winning rate of 73.*******3(etc.) %. Quite close enough to the expected result of 75% to make the point.

As I mentioned before, I found this to be an interesting psychological experiment. For most people, the intuitive analysis is that because the switch is being made when there is only two envelopes remaining, it appears to be a 50/50 proposition.

Of the ten people that took the quiz (me included):

A (incorrect): 2
B (correct): 4
C (incorrect): 4

This sampling is far to tiny to be of any statistical value, and is also skewed by the fact that I have a number of very smart friends whose brains seem to work in such a way as to make it relatively easy and natural to “see” the logical, correct answer correctly. Of those four of you who chose correctly (Antonov, Holly, Karma and Safira), perhaps you could try to shed some light on what your thought process was that allowed you to correctly bypass the obvious intuitive (incorrect) answer and arrive at the correct answer …

An Interesting Quiz Thingy

Four identical sealed envelopes are on a table. One contains a $100 bill. (The envelopes are heavy - there is no way to tell which one contains the bill without opening it.)

You are allowed to select an envelope at random without opening it and hold onto it.

Two of the remaining envelopes are then removed, and set aside, remaining sealed. You are told (truthfully) that those neither of those envelopes contain the bill.

You are now given the choice to either keep the envelope you are holding, or to trade it for the envelope remaining on the table.

What should you do?

A. Keep the envelope you are holding

B. Trade for the envelope on the table

C. It doesn't matter.

DON'T POST YOUR ANSWER AS A COMMENT!

DON'T POST YOUR ANSWER AS A COMMENT!

DON'T POST YOUR ANSWER AS A COMMENT!

DON'T POST YOUR ANSWER AS A COMMENT!

DON'T POST YOUR ANSWER AS A COMMENT!

Send it to me as a message, and I'll reveal the correct answer in a few days or so.

My Big Little Woodworking Project (With More Photos Included!)

I've been kind of preoccupied for a couple of weeks with the building of a set of shelves specifically dedicated to my collection of CDs. A few days ago, the project was finally completed, and now, my music collection, instead of being spread around on various shelves, in boxes, laying around, etc. is now consolidated, organized, and taking up a minumum of space.

The expenses break down thusly:

Wood (20 linear ft. of 1x8 and 8 linear ft. of 1x12 #2 knotty pine & two 1/4 inch 4x8 ft. sheets of plywood): $244.11
Fasteners (wood screws of five different sizes): $32.50
Varathane polyurethane finish: $32.58

(I also spent $44.10 on various tools, etc., but those I can use for future work, and they aren't included in the cost.)

Total cost: $309.19

The tools used were:
Black & Decker orbital sander
Black & Decker belt sander
Skil rotary saw
Skil cordless drill/driver
hand saw
Radi-plane edge-corner planer
one inch wood chisel
3/4 inch wood chisel
five different sized drill bits
three different sized driver bits
driver bit extension
sand paper (five different grades of coarseness)
awl
paint scraper
coarse file
flathead screwdriver
four clamps (two types)
hammer
pliers
foam paint applier
paint brush
paint stirrer
wisk brush
tape measure
three squares of different types
metal straight-edge ruler
felt-tip pens
pencils
electronic stud sensor
hearing protectors

A special note:

My Black & Decker orbital sander (seen in the upper left corner of the tool display), which was purchased by my father in 1963 (as was the Skil rotary saw), heroically gave its life in the commission of this project. It gave our family nearly fifty years worth of hard service, never complaining, always ready to go at a moment's notice. It had a long and prosperous life, and rather than mourning its passage to Power Tool Heaven, I celebrate its life and the many different projects it was utilized for.

RIP, Black & Decker orbital sander. I salute you!

Holly & Whatzhisname ... Two Lovers In Love

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Smirky? No, But ...

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