 Friends         |  jg53aol: A -3 -D -4 - 50 STATE POLL REALCLEAR POLITICS ======================================================== Trump V Biden 50 State Poll RealClear Politics My Tracking Polls as of April 11, 2024 The Most Recent Poll For Each State Available To The Public On RealClear Politics == Trump Double Digit Lead In 24 States Biden Double Digit Lead In 12 States plus DC == In the 14 Other States Trump Leads In 6 Trump Is Tied In 1 Trump Within 5 Points In 2 Biden Has 6 To 9 Point Lead In 5 ======================================================== If Trump Wins All 30 States He Leads Trump Wins The Election 285 - 253 Assuming Trump loses Maine CD 1 and Nebraska CD 2 ======================================================== Louisiana Electoral Votes - 8 ======================================================== Alabama Electoral Votes - 9 ======================================================== Mississippi Electoral Votes - 6 ======================================================== Wyoming Electoral Votes - 3 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 53 RCP Average = none ======================================================== North Dakota Electoral Votes - 3 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 37 RCP Average = none ======================================================== West Virginia Electoral Votes - 4 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 36 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Arkansas Electoral Votes - 6 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 33 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Tennessee Electoral Votes - 11 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 33 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Idaho Electoral Votes - 4 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 29 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Kentucky Electoral Votes - 8 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/3/2023 - Trump plus 29 RCP Average = none ======================================================== South Dakota Electoral Votes - 3 Emerson 1/23/2024 - 1/28/2024 - Trump plus 29 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Oklahoma Electoral Votes - 7 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/3/2023 - Trump plus 28 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Montana Electoral Votes - 4 The Hill/Emerson 2/26/2024 - 3/2/2024 - Trump plus 21 RCP Average = Trump plus 21.5 ======================================================== Indiana Electoral Votes - 11 The Hill/Emerson 3/2/2024 - 3/5/2024 - Trump plus 21 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Missouri Electoral Votes - 10 Emerson 1/23/2024 - 1/28/2024 - Trump plus 17 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Nebraska Electoral Votes - 5 2 For State and 1 For Each District Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 16 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Kansas Electoral Votes - 6 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump plus 16 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Iowa Electoral Votes - 6 Des Moines Register 2/25/2024 - 2/28/2024 - Trump plus 15 RCP Average = Trump plus 11.5 ======================================================== South Carolina Electoral Votes - 9 The Hill/Emerson 2/14/2024 - 2/16/2024 - Trump plus 14 RCP Average = Trump plus 16.0 ======================================================== Florida Electoral Votes - 30 Emerson 4/9/2024 - 4/10/2024 - Trump plus 13 RCP Average = Trump plus 9.5 ======================================================== Alaska Electoral Votes - 3 Data for Progress (D)** 2/23/2024 - 3/2/2024 - Trump plus 12 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Ohio Electoral Votes - 17 ONU/SurveyUSA 3/6/2024 - 3/11/2024 - Trump plus 12 RCP Average = Trump plus 10.0 ======================================================== Texas Electoral Votes - 40 Marist 3/18/2024 - 3/21/2024 - Trump plus 11 RCP Average = Trump plus +8.8 ======================================================== Utah Electoral Votes - 6 Deseret News/Hinckley Inst. 1/16/2024 - 1/21/2024 - Trump plus 10 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Maine Electoral Votes - 4 2 For State and 1 For Each District Pan Atlantic 2/6/2024 - 2/14/2024 - Trump plus 6 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Arizona Electoral Votes - 11 Wall Street Journal 3/17/2024 - 3/24/2024 - Trump plus 5 RCP Average = Trump plus 5.2 Trump Won 16 of 18 Polls ======================================================== Nevada Electoral Votes - 6 Wall Street Journal 3/17/2024 - 3/24/2024 - Trump plus 4 RCP Average = Trump plus 3.2 Trump Won 16 of 19 Polls ======================================================== Michigan Electoral Votes - 15 Wall Street Journal 3/17/2024 - 3/24/2024 - Trump plus 3 RCP Average = Trump plus 3.4 Trump Won 16 of 29 Polls ======================================================== North Carolina Electoral Votes - 16 Quinnipiac 4/4/2024 - 4/8/2024 - Trump plus 2 RCP Average = Trump plus 4.0 Trump Won 17 of 19 Polls ======================================================== Georgia Electoral Votes - 16 Wall Street Journal 3/17/2024 - 3/24/2024 - Trump plus 1 RCP Average = Trump plus 4.5 Trump Won 22 of 24 Polls ======================================================== Wisconsin Electoral Votes - 10 Wall Street Journal 3/17/2024 - 3/24/2024 - Trump tie RCP Average = Trump plus 0.6 Trump Won 8 of 18 Polls ======================================================== Minnesota Electoral Votes - 10 KSTP/SurveyUSA 4/3/2024 - 4/7/2024 - Trump minus 2 RCP Average = Trump minus 2.3 ======================================================== Virginia Electoral Votes - 13 Roanoke College 2/11/2024 - 2/19/2024 - Trump minus 4 RCP Average = Trump minus 4.3 ======================================================== Colorado Electoral Votes - 10 Emerson 1/23/2024 - 1/28/2024 - Trump minus 6 RCP Average = Trump minus 6.5 ======================================================== New Hampshire Electoral Votes - 4 Marist 1/15/2024 - 11/17/2024 - Trump minus 7 RCP Average = Trump minus 8.0 ======================================================== Pennsylvania Electoral Votes - 19 Franklin & Marshall 3/20/2024 - 3/31/2024 - Trump minus 10 RCP Average = Trump minus 0.1 Trump Won 17 of 32 Polls ======================================================== Trump Is Leading In 30 States Trump Is Tied Or Within 5 Points In 3 States ======================================================== If Trump Wins All 30 States He Leads Trump Wins The Election 285 - 253 Assuming Trump loses Maine CD 1 and Nebraska CD 2 ======================================================== If Trump Wins All 36 States Above Trump Wins The Election 351 - 187 Assuming Trump loses Maine CD 1 and Nebraska CD 2 ======================================================== New Jersey Electoral Votes - 14 The Hill/Emerson 3/26/2024 - 3/29/2024 - Trump minus 7 RCP Average = none ======================================================== New Mexico Electoral Votes - 5 PPP (D) 8/23/2023 - 8/24/2023 - Trump minus 8 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Illinois Electoral Votes - 19 Emerson 10/1/2023 - 10/4/2023 - Trump minus 9 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Washington Electoral Votes - 12 Cascade PBS/Elway 10/30/2023 - 11/3/2023 - Trump minus 10 RCP Average = none ======================================================== New York Electoral Votes - 28 Siena 2/12/2024 - 2/14/2024 - Trump minus 12 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Oregon Electoral Votes - 8 Emerson 10/31/2022 - 11/1/2022 - Trump minus 16 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Rhode Island Electoral Votes - 4 WPRI/Roger Williams 9/29/2022 - 10/2/2022 - Trump minus 17 RCP Average = none ======================================================== California Electoral Votes - 54 PPIC 3/19/2024 - 3/25/2024 - Trump minus 23 RCP Average = Trump minus 21.0 ======================================================== Maryland Electoral Votes - 10 The Hill/Emerson 2/12/2024 - 2/13/2024 - Trump minus 23 RCP Average = none ======================================================== Delaware Electoral Votes - 3 ======================================================== Connecticut Electoral Votes - 7 ======================================================== Hawaii Electoral Votes - 4 ======================================================== Massachusetts Electoral Votes - 11 ======================================================== Vermont Electoral Votes - 3 ======================================================== District of Columbia Electoral Votes - 3 ======================================================== |
Out Look
Trump has the following 24 States and Maine CD 2 locked up for the 2024 General Election against Biden for 219 Electoral College votes.
LA, AL, MS, WY, ND, WV, AR, TN, ID, KY, SD, OK, MT, IN, MO, NE, KS, IA, SC, AK, OH, TX, UT, FL, ME CD 2
Assuming Trump loses Nebraska CD 2.
==
Trump needs 51 more Electoral College votes from the following 12 Swing States.
If Trump gets NC 16, GA 16, AZ 11, that would be another 43.
==
Then Trump would need 8 more Electoral College votes from the remaining 9 States to reach 270.
PA 19, MI 15, VA 13, WI 10, MN 10, CO 10, NV 6, NH 4, ME State 2
Assuming Trump loses Maine CD 1.
==
I believe Trump's path to reach 270 is to win the 24 Locked States and Maine CD 2 for 219, win NC, GA, AZ for 43, then win one of PA, MI, WI.
I believe VA, MN, CO, NH, and ME State are not winnable.