"The Knight in Shining Armor", is but one of many character suits in a gentleman's treasure(d) chest.
I am just looking for friends. I like learning about things I don't know, or have a misconception with, and a lot more. Everything is usually fun. Nothing tends not to be.
A_Muse_Mint101: If you're interested, the latest US robotic Martian landing of Perseverance is today, the 18th @ around 2:30pm central time.
NASA.gov/live, YouTube.com/NASAJPL and Ustream.tv/NASAJPL and space.com will all have viewing starting around 1:15pm central time.
A_Muse_Mint101: Would it be diakoptisophile, laviphile, koumpiphile, or metavallophile?
I'm trying to figure out what the term would be for "a lover of switches, knobs, buttons, toggles" would be called.
A_Muse_Mint101: A lot to read, but worth it. I also recognize the issue with the OP's personal life, but the math is not in question.
Here's the problem with just 1% along with the problem of large number appreciation.
Also, I'd like to add a satirical context--
"I see people wearing winter coats and hats. What a bunch of sheeple. I did my own research and found that only 1500 people die from hypothermia each year in the US. That's only 0.0005% of the population. They live in fear of something that 99.9995% of people won't die from. Even worse, many of those who died from hypothermia were wearing coats and hats. Coats don't work!"
This is the level of uninformed and/or willfully ignorant we have to put up with, today. Don't choose stupid, smarty.
"How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
[Edit Nov 10, 2020: See new information at the end]
There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and
It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead.
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
9,846,000 people with strokes.
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
Original post: ALL SOURCES ARE FOUND WITHIN THE ORIGINAL POST! https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux
Edited to add
This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.)
The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them.
Some of the sources include:
Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2763524?resultClick=1
Another from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
“Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said , neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.”
“Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said , transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center.
ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure.
Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and need for oxygen. […]
According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: a call to arms?,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30222-8/fulltext
For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19.
The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications.
The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative.
Wear your damn masks, people.
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brighti in reply to A_Muse_Mint101: I don't know Musey. You know how I feel considering the arguments about the virus we had last year, when everyone thought it wasn't really that big of a deal haha. People never cared about Actual Prevention or they would've dropped last year when people like me were crying about COVID. Too late now. Super super super bug.
A_Muse_Mint101: I initially thought people, the general public, were going to do the right thing and take adequate precautions. Not going to make that mistake again. I still see people around my city doing the wrong things. I'm very disappointed in USA by and large.
A_Muse_Mint101: Double contractions, or their motif-stylization, should be standardized. You'ren't (I prefer you'rnt), innit, they'rnt, etc..
A_Muse_Mint101: I'm challenging myself and others who sided with the Democrats for PotUS to reconcile their disappointment, hatred, and/or [insert negative feeling] towards Trump and his supporters to 'be best'. Let's sow seeds of compromise to work together and unify, rather than further the divide, in our nation (and world). Let's rise up to the challenge of being the good guys, set and lead in example, and work to bridge this divide that has been fomenting for longer than Trump has been PotUS.
I believe this can be a healing movement for us all if we collectively work to challenge ourselves in this way. I know, personally, it will be difficult for me to not reciprocate the animosity and hatred, but I'm going to make my new years resolution to do just that.
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Trump’s administration actually did Americans a favour, by shining a light on the true make up of US society. Exposing all those hidden racists and 'Deplorables' who happily supported him: a president who gave the green light to racist Police brutality, and the Fascist hordes that gather around #BlueLivesMatter; a POTUS who funded brutal Israeli fanaticism to the tune of $10.7 million US tax-payer’s money every single day.
Trump supporter admits to ramming SUV following Biden/Harris bus. Also involved in a previous incident in San Antonio.
A_Muse_Mint101: 2016 - 1973 = 43
This is what I've been able to find about how long Biden has held public office. He was the 47th Vice President.
So, are MAGAts just bad at math, do they transpose the VP with his service, or are there 4 more years of service I've not discovered?
I'm just now checking this out, and hoping to recommend it, if it is as advertised.
eviebee in reply to Mew_: the only way that will happen is if people are willing to pay for good journalism. When everyone expects talent to be free, the quality goes down and 'good' journalists are put out of a job/forced to retrain in something else.
A_Muse_Mint101: Is pleasure, for the sake of pleasure alone, an evolutionary dead-end?
Is pleasure sought from the purpose of being pleased 'wrong/disadvantageous' and pleasure brought from the purpose of aiding and supporting 'right/advantageous'?
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Your first question [A_Muse_Mint101] is legitimate, and interesting. The second is a meaningless word soup of confusion, as is the whole of [FistOfStone]’s contribution; distractions from the original point.
eviebee: Hey Muse. I don't think so. Why was it pleasurable in the first place, if not to bring some evolutionary advantage? Only certain – modern – avenues for pleasure are damaging and that's because evolution hasn't ironed those out yet and we've sought to prevent that happening.
Aiding and supporting being 'right' may come from altruism and behavioural theories in which you protect others out of implicit or indirect self-interest. Not sure what you mean by the former.
A_Muse_Mint101: "The list of Trumpian outrages performed against the military... He’s the WORST...
• In May 2020, the White House ended National Guard deployments one day before they could claim benefits
• The Trump admin seized 5 million masks intended for VA hospitals. Kushner distributes these masks to private entities for a fee, who then sells the masks to the government
• Trump fired the captain of the USS Theodore Roosevelt after he warned superiors that COVID19 was spreading among his crew. The virus subsequently spread amongst the crew.
• After Iran's retaliatory strike, 109 US troops suffered brain injuries. Trump dismissed these as "headaches"
• On July 20, 2017, in room 2E924 of the Pentagon, Trump told a room full of Generals, "You’re a bunch of dopes and babies"
• Pardoned multiple war criminals, which stomped on long standing military values, discipline, and command. Trump has no military experience (May&Nov, 2019)
• Trump mocked Lt. Col. Vindman for his rank and uniform. He threatened said purple heart officer, resulting in the Army providing him protection
• Trump’s Chief of Staff worked—in secret—to deny comprehensive health coverage to Vietnam Vets who suffered from Agent Orange.
• There is a facility in Tijuana for US veterans that Trump deported. Wounded war vet, Sen Duckworth (D) marked Veterans Day 2019 by visiting this facility
• Russia took control of the main U.S. military facility in Syria abandoned on Trump’s orders. Russia now owns the airstrip we built
• On Oct 7, 2019, Trump abruptly withdrew support from America's allies in Syria after a phone call with Turkey's president (Erdogan). Turkey subsequently bombed US Special Forces.
• Trump sent thousands of American troops to defend the oil assets of the country that perpetrated 9/11
• In Sept 2019, he made an Air Force cargo crew, flying from the U.S. to Kuwait stop in Scotland (where there's no U.S. base) to refuel at a commercial airport (where it costs more), so they could stay overnight at a Trump property (which isn't close to the airport). Trump’s golf courses are losing money, so he's forcing the military to pay for 5-star nights there.
• In Sept, 2019, Pentagon pulled funds for military schools, military housing funds, and daycare to pay for Trump's border wall.
• In Aug, 2019, emails revealed that three of Trump's Mar-a-Lago pals, who are now running Veterans Affairs, are rampant with meddling. "They had no experience in veterans affairs (none of them even served in the military) nor underwent any kind of approval process to serve as de facto managers. Yet, with Trump’s approval, they directed actions and criticized operations without any oversight. They wasted valuable staff time in hundreds of pages of communications and meetings, emails show. Emails reveal disdainful attitudes within the department to the trio’s meddling."
• Veterans graves will be "dug up" for the border wall, after Trump instructed aides to seize private property. Trump told officials he would pardon them if they break the law by illegally seizing property
• Children of deployed US troops are no longer guaranteed citizenship. This includes US troops posted abroad for years at a time (August 28, 2019)
• On Aug 2, 2019, Trump requisitioned military retirement funds towards border wall
• On July 31, 2019, Trump ordered the Navy rescind medals to prosecutors who were prosecuted war criminals
• Trump denied a U.S. Marine of 6 years entry into the United States for his citizenship interview (Reported July 17, 2019)
• Trump made the U.S. Navy Blue Angels violate ethics rules by having them fly at his July 4th political campaign event (July 4, 2019)
• Trump demanded US military chiefs stand next to him at 4th of July parade (reported July 2, 2019)
• In June, 2019, Trump sent troops to the border to paint the fence for a better "aesthetic appearance"
• Trump used his D-Day interview at a cemetery commemorating fallen US soldiers to attack a Vietnam veteran (June 6, 2019)
• Trump started his D-Day commemoration speech by attacking a private citizen (Bette Midler, of all people) (reported on June 4th, 2019)
• Trump made his 2nd wife, Marla Maples, sign a prenup that would have cut off all child support if Tiffany joined the military (reported June 4th, 2019)
• On May 27, 2019, Trump turned away US military from his Memorial Day speech because they were from the destroyer USS John S. McCain
• Trump ordered the USS John McCain out of sight during his visit to Japan (May 15, 2019). The ship's name was subsequently covered. (May 27, 2019)
• Trump purged 200,000 vets' healthcare applications (due to known administrative errors within VA’s enrollment system) (reported on May 13, 2019)
• Trump deported a spouse of fallen Army soldier killed in Afghanistan, leaving their daughter parentless (April 16, 2019)
• On March 20, 2019, Trump complained that a deceased war hero didn't thank him for his funeral
• Between 12/22/2018, and 1/25/2019, Trump refused to sign his party's funding bill, which shut down the government, forcing the Coast Guard to go without pay, which made service members rely on food pantries. However, his appointees got a $10,000 pay raise
• He banned service members from serving based on gender identity (1/22/2019)
• He denied female troops access to birth control to limit sexual activity (on-going. Published Jan 18, 2019)
• He tried to deport a marine vet who is a U.S.-born citizen (Jan 16, 2019)
• When a man was caught swindling veterans pensions for high-interest “cash advances," Trump's Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fined him $1 (Jan 26, 2019)
• He called a retired general a 'dog' with a 'big, dumb mouth' (Jan 1, 2019)
• He increased privatization of the VA, leading to longer waits and higher taxpayer cost (2018)
• He finally visited troops 2 years after taking office, but only after 154 vacation days at his properties (Dec 26, 2018)
• He revealed a covert Seal Team 5 deployment, including names and faces, on Twitter during his visit to Iraq (Dec 26, 2018)
• Trump lied to deployed troops that he gave them a 10% raise (12/26/2018). He tried giving the military a raise that was lower than the standard living adjustment. Congress told him that idea wasn't going to work. Then after giving them the raise that Congress made him, he lied about it pretending that it was larger than Obama's. It wasn't.
• He fired service members living with HIV just before the 2018 holidays
• He tried to slash disability and unemployment benefits for Veterans to $0, and eliminate the unemployability extrascheduler rating (Dec 17, 2018)
• He called troops on Thanksgiving and told them he's most thankful for himself (Thanksgiving, 2018)
• He urged Florida to not count deployed military votes (Nov 12, 2018)
• He canceled an Arlington Cemetery visit on Veterans Day due to light rain (Nov 12, 2018)
• While in Europe commemorating the end of WWI, he didn't attend the ceremony at a US cemetery due to the rain -- other world leaders went anyway (Nov 10, 2018)
• He used troops as a political prop by sending them on a phantom mission to the border and made them miss Thanksgiving with their families (Oct-Dec, 2018)
• He stopped using troops as a political prop immediately after the election. However, the troops remained in muddy camps on the border (Nov 7, 2018)
• Trump changed the GI Bill through his Forever GI Act, causing the VA to miss veteran benefits, including housing allowances. This caused many vets to run out of food and rent. (reported October 7, 2018)
• Trump doubled the rejection rate for veterans requesting family deportation protections (July 5, 2018)
• Trump deported active-duty spouses (11,800 military families face this problem as of April 2018)
• He forgot a fallen soldier's name (below) during a call to his pregnant widow, then attacked her the next day (Oct 23-24, 2017)
• He sent commandos into an ambush due to a lack of intel, and sends contractors to pick them up, resulting in a commando being left behind, tortured, and executed. (Trump approved the mission because Bannon told him Obama didn't have the guts to do it) (Oct 4, 2017)
• He blocked a veteran group on Twitter (June 2017)
• He ordered the discharge of active-duty immigrant troops with good records (2017-present)
• He deported veterans (2017-present)
• He said he knows more about ISIS than American generals (Oct 2016)
• On Oct 3, 2016, Trump said vets get PTSD because they aren't strong (note: yes, he said it's 'because they aren't strong.' He didn't say it's 'because they're weak.' This distinction is important because of Snopes)
• Trump accepted a Purple Heart from a fan at one of his rallies and said: “I always wanted to get the Purple Heart. This was much easier.” (Aug 2, 2016)
• Trump attacks Gold Star families: Myeshia Johnson (gold star widow), Khan family (gold star parents) etc. (2016-present)
• Trump sent funds raised from a Jan 2016 veterans benefit to the Donald J Trump Foundation instead of veterans charities (the foundation has since been ordered shut because of fraud) (Jan, 2016)
• Trump said he has "more training militarily than a lot of the guys that go into the military" because he went to a military-style academy (2015 biography)
• Trump said he doesn't consider POWs heroes because they were caught. He said he prefers people who were not caught (July 18, 2015)
• Trump said having unprotected sex was his own personal Vietnam (1998)
• For a decade, Trump sought to kick veterans off of Fifth Avenue because he found them unsightly nuisances outside of Trump Tower. 1991
• Trump dodged the draft 5 times by having a doctor diagnose him with bone spurs.
• No Trump in America has ever served in the military; this spans 5 generations, and every branch of the family tree. In fact, the reason his grandfather immigrated to America was to avoid military service.
Copied and pasted. This what 45 did for veterans. Don't listen to his lies. Deeds speak louder than words."
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A_Muse_Mint101: Hurricane Laura is projected by NOAA to potentially reach category 4 hurricane later Wednesday. Gonna be windy here where I'm at, 50 miles south of Houston, inland about 15 miles. But I'm in the "dry side" of this, so it will primarily be a wind event for me. Hopefully no eyewall near me, but it looks like it won't be too far, neither.
There's an adage here that goes, "run from the water, shelter from the wind".
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FistOfStone in reply to A_Muse_Mint101: glad to hear it ... yes, i'm sad for those for whom that wasn't the case, but i care more about people i know, and i maintain that that's not inherently ethically problematic (don't tell peter singer, he would eat me for lunch over that)
A_Muse_Mint101: What if the conspiracy that QAnon'ers are trying to latch onto is Trump's ability to take a brand, company, and/or party and completely bring out and expose the rife character corruption problem within that organization; that Americans, and humanity at large, face as a challenge to civil and democratic honesty and integrity.
Driving out the principled and reasoned Republicans seems to have worked effectively. Perhaps he should switch faces and become a Democrat and work that magic on them, too.
Harrumph, if only this were the reality...
A_Muse_Mint101: Science has extended into the attosecond spectroscopy range. This should bring about some interesting finds about matter interactions.
A_Muse_Mint101: "23-Million-Year-Old Fossil Leaf Reveals Earth Might See A Plant Boom As CO2 Rises." - IFLS headline
Great, and now we get exploding plants...
AGRICOLA: Agricultural Online Access https://agricola.nal.usda.gov/
System for Agricultural Science and Technology)
arXiv mathematics, physics, astronomy, computer
science, quantitative biology, statistics, and quantitative finance() arXiv.org
Astrophysics Data System http://www.adsabs.harvard.edu/
Bioline International (http://www.bioline.org.br/)
Cochrane Library http://www.cochranelibrary.com/
Directory of Open Access Journals (http://www.doaj.org/)
Google Scholar scholar.google.com
National Science Digital Library https://nsdl.oercommons.org/
New Journal of Physics (http://iopscience.iop.org/1367-2630):
PLOS ONE (http://www.plosone.org/)
Science and Technology of Advanced Materials (http://iopscience.iop.org/1468-6996/)
Springer Science www.springer.com/gp/
SCIENCE VS PSEUDOSCIENCE, and CRITICAL THINKING
Calling Bullshit: http://callingbullshit.org/syllabus.html
Sense of Science: http://senseaboutscience.org/activities/…
Aspiring Thinkers Guide to Critical Thinking : http://www.criticalthinking.org/…/SAM_Aspiring_Thinkers_Gui…
The Miniature Guide to The Foundation for Critical Thinking : https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/…/p…/1/1710/Critical_Thinking.pdf
Your Deceptive Mind: A Scientific Guide to Critical Thinking Skills : https://guidebookstgc.snagfilms.com/9344_Deceptive_Mind.pdf
How to understand arguments:
More on logical fallacies and bias and the psychology of conspiracy theories
Critical thinking and pseudoscience detection:
Scientific Method: A Beginner’s Guide: http://course.sdu.edu.cn/…/eWebEditor/uploadfile/2014030616…
ONLINE FACT CHECKING
DOCUMENTARIES/TV SHOWS: (These you may need to pay for)
Food Evolution Movie
Everything narrated by David Attenborough
Everything narrated by Neil deGrasse Tyson
Everything narrated by Brian Greene
Everything narrated by Professor Brian Cox
Everything narrated by Lawrence M. Krauss
Everything Ben Goldacre
Cosmos: A Space-Time Odyssey
Bill Nye Saves the W@orld (Netflix)
Dr Karl Kruszelnicki (http://drkarl.com)
The science section here: https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/catego…/science-technology/…
World Science Festival
World Science Festival Brisbane
MISC SCIENCE STUFF:
Climate Science: http://www.realclimate.org
GMOs and Biotech: https://gmoanswers.com/
https://www.biofortified.org/ for all things biotechnology, food, and agriculture.
https://eric.ed.gov/ is good for research on education
VACCINES and HERD IMMUNITY::
All in one vaccination resource:
Vaccine studies (not complete): https://drive.google.com/open…
Studies on the economic burden of disease: https://drive.google.com/open…
Links debunking incorrect claims: http://www.redwineandapplesauce.com/vaccine-articles-off-s…/
Extensive List of Debunk Pseudoscience Studies in relation to vaccines: http://lizditz.typepad.com/…/-those-lists-of-papers-that-cl…
Herd Immunity Guide: https://drive.google.com/open…
From Bozeman Science:
From Healthcare Triage:
Cognitive Bias: https://tinyurl.com/yanhr48e
Climate Change: https://tinyurl.com/ydg26pav
Herd Immunity: https://tinyurl.com/ycb8xuy9
HPV vaccine: https://tinyurl.com/yczh7lfd
Bad Science Debunked
Bearded Science Guy
Britt Marie Hermes
Debunking ADHD & Autism Myths & Misinformation
Doctor Anna's Imaginarium
Dr. Richard Pan
Making Sense of Fluoride
Myles Power (powerm1985)
NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCSE: The National Center for Science Education
Not an Exact Science Show
NOVA l PBS
Nurses Who Vaccinate
Red Wine & Apple Sauce
Stop the Anti-Science Movement
the chronicle flask
The Credible Hulk
The Cynical Pharmacist
The Hawaii Farmer's Daughter
The Logic of Science
The Scientific Parent
You are free to do whatever you wish with these links. You can watch lectures, read the books, or do absolutely nothing at all.
But if you chose to do nothing at all after resources have been provided to you – that is entirely on you. Education should be accessible to everyone, however, once people have been pointed in the right direction it is their responsibility to utilise those resources. Studying takes time, education takes effort, and if you want to learn something new you need to be prepared to make time to better yourself. If you do not understand something, it doesn't mean you are dumb but it does mean that lecturers aren’t mind readers, science educators aren’t psychics – it is up to you to put your hand up and ask for the help we’re happy to provide.
One more thing:
ACTUALLY, READ ARTICLES NOT JUST THE HEADLINE. YOU CAN TAKE YOUR TIME IF YOU NEED. IF YOU ARE TOO LAZY TO READ THE LINK DON'T COMMENT. I WILL NOT BE PROVIDING YOU INFORMATION ONLY FOR YOU TO IGNORE IT AND DEMAND MORE INFORMATION YOU REFUSE TO READ. I WILL NOT READ THE INFORMATION FOR YOU. IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO ENSURE YOU HAVE MORE KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING THAN A BAG OF DOORKNOBS.
Repost from awhile ago - updated with further information."