Survivor: Redemption Island (Page 8) Sables: omg the finale is on Sunday, where did the time go Sits? I was in a big panic as I had a virus on my computer and wasn't sure I would get it back in time whew  StuckInTheSixties: They're really ramming it through all together at the end. Okay, we know this: ~ Two more episodes - one on Wednesday, and (presumeably) a two hour finale with the hour-long post-game show - that's three hours of game we'll be seeing. ~ There are still nine players remaining in the game - Rob, Natalie, Ashley, Grant and Phillip in Murlonio, and Matt, Mike, Ralph and Andrea on Redemption. Now I'll begin speculating: First of all, I'm guessing that the way they've been working Redemption Island is going to change. Either two, or maybe even three, of those exiles are going to be eliminated from the game. And those not eliminated are going to be merged back into Murlonio. I think that will happen before the next Tribal Council. And at the next Tribal Council, there will have to be at least two eliminated. So let's start working with numbers: First, most importantly, let's count everyone involved, regular players, exiles, and jurors: ~ Regular Players: Ashley Grant Natalie Phillip Rob ~ Exiles Andrea Matt Mike Ralph ~ Jurors David Julie Steve A total of twelve players. This really makes me wonder about something: ~ If the final "popularity" vote is a two-person choice, that will involve ten jurors - and a possibility of a 5/5 tie-vote. ~ If the final "popularity" vote is a three-person choice, that will involve nine jurors - and again, a possibility of a 3/3/3 tie-vote. Jeezus! They wouldn't actually have the final popularity vote be a FOUR-person choice, would they? That would guarantee a single winning vote-getter. Now, of course during Tribal Councils, when there's a tie, they have some way to deal with it. I think in the past I've seen it be just a simple contest of luck, such as having the tied players reach into a bag for a pebble, and the person choosing the white (or black) pebble survives (or is eliminated). I've also seen those tied players subjected to a little challenge right there and then, such as who is first to build a fire big enough to burn through the string, etc. But NO WAY will they do that for the big final in either Los Angeles of New York. So I'm puzzled as to what they'll do. If two exiles rejoin Murlonio, that'll make seven players total. Over the course of those three hours, I think we'll see two of them eliminated in the first Tribal Council, reducing the players to five. But I digress. Regardless of what they do with Redemption Island, they're gonna have to quickly, over the course of three hours of programming, reduce those players down. That's going to mean multiple eliminations in Tribal Council, perhaps two, even three consecutive Tribal Councils with multiple eliminations. Whatever they do, the rate of elimination is going to be sped-up in these last two episides. StuckInTheSixties: Plans can go awry on Survivor. You can plan. You can get your ducks in a row. But plans can go awry. So easily. In Episode #13, as the five remaining Ometepe cannibals returned from Tribal Council, where they had just served up Andrea, a theme for this episode emerged: the power-pairing of Bikini Girls Natalie and Ashley. As Ashley, in an aside to viewers, explained what we already knew: “I’m not gonna lie. I’m kind of glad to see Andrea gone. I just felt Natalie and I were always like this [crosses her fingers], and she was kind of always on the outs.” Throughout the episode, Ashley repeatedly coddled and cooed her loyalty to Natalie, as she did immediately upon return from Tribal Council. Little did she know that Natalie was not quite as devoted to the twosome. Natalie explained to viewers: “I’m kind of stuck in a bad situation just because Ashley keep bringing up ‘You’re looking out for me, and I’m looking out for her …’ I’m leaning towards sticking to Rob just because he has been there for me throughout this … but so has Ashley.” As Ometepe settled in for the night, Rob beckoned Natalie over and confidently asked her what the girls had been talking about. Natalie dutifully spelled it out, that Ashley is counting on her as a twosome to the end. Rob assigned Natalie’s task to her: “We’ll just keep out eyes open. Let her still think that she’s your best friend. You know what I mean?” Rob continued persuasively … and ironically: “There’s just something about her that’s really sneaky. I said it from day one.” Rob gave an analysis to viewers in an aside: “Ashley’s probably thinkin’ about a way to turn the boat against me. I’ve been fighting ten years to get to this point. I’m seven days away. It might make sense to get rid of Ashley next. Things have to go JUST RIGHT. I’ve had control in this game. I just need to keep control.” After a break for commercials, the program resumed with the little drama we’ve been anticipating for the last week: Andrea’s arrival to Redemption Island. Not surprisingly, it was awkward and uncomfortable. While there weren’t any real fireworks, cursing, or screaming accusations from Matt, he was definitely, and reasonably, as cold as ice towards Andrea. No greeting with a hug. Just a simple, cold monotone “Hello.” At first, Andrea attempted to be jolly and mesh in with her new fellow exiles. They were having none of it. There was a small conversation between Andrea and Matt pertaining to their exchange of looks that happened during the last Redemption Island Duel. It degenerated into a mild argument – two differing versions of the reality that brought them both to being there. Andrea, attempting to justify her voting TWICE against Matt, had her mouth running a million miles an hour. She tried desperately to explain what had happened when Matt had been returned to the main game. She tried to explain, via a recap of those events, how his confused flip-flopping of strategies (first he wanted to join Zapatera with an assassination attempt directed at Rob – then God told him to trust Rob and stick with Ometepe, etc. – readers can refresh themselves with the details on page 4 of this thread). Matt simply let her rattle it all off, and then, in a voice dripping with sarcasm, replied, “Well, I’m sorry for ruining your Survivor Game and throwing you under the bus …” It was his way of saying, “You ruined my Survivor game and threw me under the bus.” Given Matt’s irrational behavior when he returned to the main game, Andrea had every right to turn on him. Perhaps he’ll realize that when the game is over, but understandably, Matt was not inclined to accept any of Andrea’s explanations there that night in the darkness of Redemption Island. She tried to be graceful about it, but now, there is no love lost between these two. StuckInTheSixties: Adding to the less-than-cordial atmosphere, Ralph, Mike and Matt refused to let her sleep in the shelter with them, forcing her to huddle in a blanket on the hard ground beneath them. As Ralph explained to viewers: “She sleeps on the ground. We merged. They [Ometepe] kept their tent, their tarp … this is payback.” While it’s true that after the merge, Zapatera was denied usage of the bigger, better Murlonio shelter, they weren’t forced to sleep on the GROUND! Jeesh! The drama continued the next morning at the Redemption Island Arena. Jeff Probst exhorted Andrea: “First chance to look at the five who blindsided you at the last tribal council.” As she confessed how hard it was to look into the eyes of those who had betrayed her, Matt shot her a look of total disgust. Jeff drew her out a little further, and she got a little teary and emotional. The five in Ometepe simply gave no reaction beyond expressions of steely determination. Jeff dropped a clue as to the future of the game structure: “Well, the good news is that all four of you are still in this game, and one person, at some point … is gonna go back into the game and still have a shot at the million dollars. To get there, you have to survive today’s Duel.” If Jeff’s words are to be taken literally, that means that there will be one, and only one, Redemption Island exile returning to the main part of the game. Who, how, and when remain to be seen. With the Survivor season quickly running out, I expected this episode to feature some significant changes in game structure, beginning with the Redemption Island Duel. But the usual pattern was followed: Three winners that remain as exiles and one loser who becomes the newest Jury member. The two-part Duel was made up of game elements seen in previous seasons. First, a handle needed to be carefully moved through a maze before reaching the end, where it could be removed and used to break a tile. That tile covered a bag of two-dimensional puzzle pieces that then needed to be assembled. Ralph whizzed quickly through the maze, while Andrea struggled, falling further and further behind her competitors. But she caught up as Ralph then lost his substantial lead while unsuccessfully attempting to assemble the puzzle. Andrea finally overtook Ralph, and put him out of the game and into the Jury. The planning and bargaining of the Ometepe cannibals began in earnest. Everyone is making promises to each other. Everyone trusts everyone. Everyone is planning to take everyone to the end. Of course, there is plenty of strategic lying taking place. It’s a necessary evil at this point in the game, and while everyone is being assured by everyone else, everyone knows this, and everyone is paranoid. In the midst of this, Grant and Rob agreed that Ashley would be the next to go. Food has become an issue in Murlonio Camp. The players have to carefully ration what little rice they have left. There would probably have been more rice on hand, but as you will remember, in retaliation during the “shelter” issue, the last Zapatera members hogged their substantial stash of rice, leaving none for the remaining Ometepe players that could desperately use it now. Therefore, they now actually have to force themselves to lie around lazily, conserving their energy, making the most of what meager meals they are able to have. This situation resulted in yet another absurd Crazy Phillip meltdown, as he ridiculously ranted that the girls, being smaller than him in stature, should be given accordingly smaller portions of rice. This led to their outright mocking of him, and the girls ordered him, “Get out of our faces!” This infuriated Crazy Phillip, who became incensed. He is genuinely nuts … sometimes scarily so. StuckInTheSixties: That little drama led Rob to make a decision, and to confide to viewers: “Ashley and Natalie are getting’ too close for comfort. The best thing for me to do is to split the two of them up. Instead of picking on one of ‘em, [Phillip] picks on both of them. Instead of driving them apart, he drives ‘em closer together. Phillip! Stop making so much work for me!” Shortly thereafter, Rob cornered Natalie on a trail outside of camp. Natalie, immediately knowing a decision had been made, nervously asked: “What are you thinking? I’m scared …” Rob, ever in charge, simply replied by giving Natalie her battle orders: “Don’t be scared. All you have to do is you just have to do what I say, okay? Keep Ashley happy. If you hear her mention anything about some kind of plan that doesn’t involve gettin’ Phillip out, then we need to talk.” They both agreed that eliminating Crazy Phillip was Ashley’s priority. Natalie divulged that, “[Ashley’s] freaking out that now they’re gonna go for her.” Rob laid it on the line: “Yeah …well, we ARE gonna go for her.” Natalie seemed to have equal measures of confusion, resignation, and general dread. Rob simply implored upon her for her trust. “Just trust me on this. I know you and Ashley have been friends this whole game. I promise you, I will get you to the end.” (That’s a fairly realistic promise if the final vote involves three people. If it involves only two, then Rob will cut her throat to keep Crazy Phillip alongside of him.) To put that in context, viewers were shown an aside with Ashley, where she explained, “Natalie and I … you know, we stuck together since the beginning, and the thing with Natalie is she’s really relying on Rob a lot. I rely on Rob, but I also know that he’s playing the game, and I would bet my life that if it came down to Grant, me, Natalie and Rob in the four, that Rob would vote one of us girls out in a heartbeat. So I think the best play for me in this game is to just get a big move going here and get rid of a strong competitor.” As we knew it would, the scheming has begun in earnest as the cannibals strive to avoid becoming dinner. The lying, scheming and conspiring continued that night, as Ashley conspired against Grant, explaining to Rob, while Natalie looked on: “We were just thinking that it might be smarter to send Grant to Redemption [Island], and then, only one person comes back, whereas, if he’s still here, and Mike comes back, we’ll have to worry about getting rid of Mike … and him … I just wanna do what’s smartest to keep us three together.” Rob’s reaction was less than enthusiastic: “It’s definitely something to consider. Let’s just sleep on it and see what happens tomorrow.” Rob then confided to viewers: “Ashley actually gave to me what was a ‘genius’ plan – ‘Let’s get rid of Grant next.’ I ran the numbers on this scenario weeks ago. It doesn’t make sense. All it does is give Ashley another way closer to squeezin’ herself into the final.” Rob’s answer was to spill Ashley’s plan to Grant: “She’s no good, Bro. She wants you gone. She wants to throw you under the bus.” Rob further promised Grant: “You have my word. We gotta win. Me and you. We have to win every single [Immunity Challenge] from here on out.” The two “bros” shook hands on that. In a confident aside to viewers, Grant said, “If Ashley doesn’t win Immunity, she’s outta this game, and I’m gonna be happy to do it.” In an aside to viewers, Rob concurred, “Ashley actually came to me last night and she thinks she wants to get rid of Grant before Phillip. Ashley’s had a free ride for thirty-five days, and her fairy tale’s about to come to an end … real abruptly.” In the morning, the three men took a conspiratorial walk to check on Tree Mail and talk strategy. Grant and Rob laid out the plan for Phillip, who was completely on board, of course. As far as Grant and Phillip knew, this was the all-male final three, joshing each other, shaking hands, having a good time. StuckInTheSixties: Arriving back at camp, they woke the girls up with Tree Mail, a cryptic message about the impending Immunity Challenge. Ashley began to feel a little bit of sensible paranoia seeping in. She confided to viewers: “We’ll see. I kind of feel paranoid, like, if Grant wins Immunity, then, like, I might be on the chopping block, but generally, I trust Natalie. I think she’s a hundred percent on my side, so if anything’s said, Natalie let’s me know.” (Don’t bet on that, Ashley!) In a moment when they were alone, Natalie confided to Rob: “This is gonna be hard.” Rob continued to reassure her. He seemed genuinely sincere, or at least, as sincere as he could be in this game. The atmosphere in Murlonio Camp was, of course, tense. The players are quite aware that it’s getting down to the point where the cannibals begin feasting on each other without warning. Everyone was anxious to believe it wouldn’t be them. But while they were being realistic about the cannibalistic nature of the game, each of the players also continued to be at least somewhat reassured that they weren’t the target. This is a measure of how well Rob continues to play his game and manipulate the other players. His plan depends on somehow managing the inevitable paranoia, and keeping every player confident that THIS TIME it won’t be them. Rob had everything under control. It was all going according to plan, just like he wanted … until … Immunity Challenge. Great plans are great until they fail. Failure was about make its appearance. The Immunity Challenge was a new one, a dexterity competition not seen in previous Survivor Games. To start with, each player had an arm restrained behind their backs, so it all had to be accomplished one-handed. The game consisted of several steps. First, they had to use an “S”-shaped hook to hook another hook, then another, a chain of hooks, then snag a bag of puzzle pieces. The pieces were “ribs” to be fitted into a hanging fish skeleton. The ribs could very easily fall, and had to be very carefully fit into place, and also could not touch each other. A final aspect of the game was that it also would entail a reward, a three-course meal delivered to them there in camp where the winner would feast, while the others wouldn’t. Laying waste to Rob’s grand plan, it was Ashley who won the Challenge, the first win for her, edging out Rob. Not surprisingly, Ashley’s win allowed her to also choose a dining companion, and not surprisingly, she chose Natalie. Rob was not at all happy with this development. It was an inevitable and unhappy choice for him, but Ashley’s victory spelled death for Grant. It forced Rob to have to hastily put together a Plan B: “It seems like no matter what the situation is on Survivor, I have to do the dirty work … so I basically told Phillip we’re voting for Grant. Then I had to go to Phillip, Ashley and Natalie – we’re voting for Grant. Then I had to go to Grant, and ask Grant which way he wanted to go, if he wanted to go with Phil first, or go with Natalie … it’s a lot of work. It’s exhausting …” StuckInTheSixties: Grant decided (so he thought) that it would be Natalie that would be blindsided, the next victim, the next meal at the Cannibals Banquet. He had no idea what was actually in store. The three-course meal was delivered to the girls, who pigged out almost to the point of being sick. While the girls dined on pizza and chocolatey deserts, the three men dined on conspiracy. Rob’s concern about the two girls being too close was never out of his mind, and watching them enjoy their private feast only exacerbated his concern. But later on, Natalie assured Rob that although Ashley is convinced that the two of them are a tight alliance of two, she remains loyal to Rob. Rob was playing Natalie’s sympathies like a fiddle, saying to her, “I know Ashley can’t be trusted … because if she turned on Grant this quickly, it’ll be me next, I guarantee it.” Even though there were a few little indications that the vote could always be a surprise, it seemed pretty much set that Grant would be the victim. At Tribal Council, the stern-faced jury was brought in to witness the cannibals turn on each other. During the typical pre-vote interrogation by Jeff, the players all answered in the ways they were expected to, admitting trepidation, acknowledging the reality of danger … while at the same time, projecting at least a modicum of confidence. The one thing for sure was that someone was going to be blindsided. Again, Rob’s Hidden Immunity Idol remained hidden. It was a very tense reading of the ballots. Natalie’s name (on Grant’s ballot) was read first, causing her to take a sharp breath. Grant’s name was read next, which was no surprise to him, but caused him to tense, nonetheless. The third vote was again Grant, and you could see his tenseness notch up again, although he still assumed he was safe, thinking that those two votes would be those cast by the two Bikini Girls. But when the fourth, and deciding “Grant” vote was read, that was that. As he picked up his belongings, and took his torch over to Jeff to be extinguished, he muttered to Natalie, “It wasn’t you …” As he left, he said to the cannibals with an air of confidence … “See you guys shortly.” As an indication of just how good Rob has played his game, in a short, final aside to viewers, Grant said, “It turns out somebody wasn’t being honest, and that’s just how it goes, but … possibly Rob betrayed me. Possibly Phillip did …” Both of them betrayed you, Grant, but the decision was Rob’s. Sables: wow just wow huh!!! As I said the girls have one chance now to get control, they have to talk to Philip or the next redemption island winner to be brought back ( I think this is the best recourse as there is a very small chance that Phil would remain loyal to Rob), Rob has to be on pins and needles as he must know that this is the way it will go...if the girls can get the cast off on their side and I do believe that the person will be game to vote off ROb then their next move is to get rid of Phreaky Phil.... but of course as usual this all depends on who wins imunity on the next challenge and I am betting that Rob will just about kill himself again to get it.... StuckInTheSixties: Keep something in mind ... NO ONE knows Boston Rob holds a Hidden Immunity Idol. If he catches the scent of a conspiracy, he'll play it. The result of that will be two fold: 1. He'll be able to execute the player of his choice 2. He'll be more vulnerable than ever after that But ... If he can fend off any conspiracy until the very last regular vote, then regardless of anything, he can play his idol, and put himself into the final in spite of any attempts to get rid of him, and simultaneously, execute the player of his choice. If that happens, it won't even matter if the vote is unanimous. In fact, if he gets that far with his idol, he'll basically become the invulnerable executioner. And, of course, as long as he holds onto his idol, there won't be another available for anyone else's use. Don't be surprised if the other players think that they're going to play a perfectly timed backstab by voting him off in the last vote only to find their perfect plan bamboozled by an idol that no one even knows exists. And a move like that would guarantee a healthy "respect" vote at the end. In fact, if he can make it to that last vote without using his idol, he can either play it if he wants to, guaranteeing an execution of the player of his choice, or if he's REALLY ballsy, he can NOT play it, and then pull it out and blow minds! Either way, if he can pull off a feat like that, how could you not vote for him to win? It's a big "if" ... Sables: totally anything could happen, he might even suspect that the girls are going to vote him...and if Ashley wins the necklace again, maybe he will play it, then they can vote Phil off, I do believe that if they talk to any of the Ometepe they will be more than willing to side with them to vote Rob off if they get a chance to have a second vote.. but I guess I know where you and I will be next Sunday nite, I get to watch it at five our time though, you have no idea how much it takes me to not say anything until after you have done your blurb StuckInTheSixties: Oh! Consider this ... If Rob can make it to that last vote without playing his Idol ... ... AND ... ... he also wins Immunity in a challenge for that round ... he will, of course, be guaranteed a spot in the final "popularity vote." Not only that, he'll be able to guarantee at least one of the players to go with him by giving them the Hidden Immunity Idol! So if he can do that, and Crazy Phillip is still around, Phillip will be a shoo-in. Everyone would want to go into the final with Phillip, so no one will vote for him. And he'd be able to then choose amongst who's left and pick the person who he thinks is least likely to get more popularity votes, and bestow the idol on that person. StuckInTheSixties: I was amazed that this late in the game, still only one person was eliminated from Redemption Island. They're quickly running out of program time here, and there's still A BUNCH of people left in the game! They are going to have to start eliminating people QUICKLY. I'll guess at this point that the last Challenge/Duel on Redemption Island will feature one single winner, and three losers/jurors. I think they'll have time to do this: ~ Open the last two-hour episode with another, standard Redemption Island Challenge/Duel - three survivors, one loser/juror. ~ Then the four remaining Ometepe players will go through the paces of a regular episode, culminating with a Tribal Council, voting another player over to Redemption Island, reducing their numbers to only three. ~ The morning after that, one final Redemption Island Challenge/Duel, but this time with only one Survivor, and three losers/jurors. That winner will rejoin the main game, bringing the number up back up to four. ~ One last Immunity Challenge to determine who makes it to the final, "popularity" vote. Also ... There's one eventuality that's been lurking in the back of my mind ... that I've sort of ... surpressed. If he makes it to the final "popularity vote," is it actually possible that as an act of retribution, revenge ... people could actually vote for ... Crazy Phillip?!?!? Wouldn't it be a mind-blower if, at the final Tribal Council, where the finalists each get a turn to make their "Why I Should Win" speech to the Jury, Crazy Phillip stands up, and suddenly, the crazyness just ... evaporates, disappears, and suddenly, this smart, genial, well-spoken, rational, clear-headed guy divulges how it was all just one big act, that there is no "Special Government Agent," no "great great grandfather" speaking to him from the past, none of that crazy shit ... it was ALL just an act, a strategy designed to get him to that point so that he could then step out of that crazy character, and point out that the by playing that role, he was able to avoid all of the backstabbing and betrayal that's usually necessary ... StuckInTheSixties: Rich, what have you been smoking? The Hidden Immunity Idol is in Rob's pocket, ready to be played whenever he wants. At every single Tribal Council, Jeff always intones (and this is a verbatim quote from Wednesday's episode): "If anyone has the Hidden Immunity Idol and you want to play it, now would be the time to do so ... [long pause while the camera shows the faces of various players] ... Once the votes are read, the decision is final. The person voted out will be asked to leave the Tribal Council area immediately ... I'll read the votes ..." etc. etc. And what the heck do you mean, "How did Natalie get back into the game!" Natalie has never left the game. Pay attention, dude! SABLES, you might be right, but I really don't think so. I think Crazy Phillip is truly crazy. If he's not ... if this has all been an Oscar-Award winning act, then I think he'd be worthy of anyone's vote. But he's crazy. And he makes everyone's life in camp miserable. I'll be very surprised if he gets a single vote, assuming, of course, that he actually makes it to the end. StuckInTheSixties: Indeed. That's why it's been lurking in the back of my mind. But I think if Crazy Phillip is actually crazy ... and I think he is ... I don't see how people would want to vote for him. Here's a question I really want an answer for: "Will there be a point when Jeff Probst announces: "This is the last Tribal Council in which the Hidden Immunity Idol can be played." If so, when will that be? Can a Hidden Immunity Idol be played to insure one gets into the final popularity vote? If memory serves me correctly, winning Immunity in an Immunity Challenge at the very end assures one player entry into the final popularity vote. Can a Hidden Immunity Idol also insure entry into that vote, or is it announced by Jeff in the second-to-last Tribal Council that it must be played then, or not at all? Sables: there are so many things we don't know to make a guess with...lol I guess we will have to watch Was just talking to Kath she say "cheers bro!"  StuckInTheSixties: Just saw a significant clue on a little TV Survivor "bump" ad: Three more Tribal Councils. That seems to fit with the pattern I was thinking might happen: 1. A normal Redemption Island Challenge/Duel with three that survive and one that is eliminated, and joins the Jury 2. A Tribal Council where one of the four Ometepe players is voted out, and who is sent to Redemption Island 3. Another Redemption Island Challenge/Duel, but this time, only one single winner that is returned to the main game, and the remaining exiles/losers become part of the Jury 4. One last regular Tribal Council where one of those four (includes the exile that returned to the game) is voted out, and who joins the Jury 5. A final Tribal Council - the "popularity vote" - where a winner is chosen from the "final three" remaining players StuckInTheSixties: Here's another variation that could happen (but less likely, I think) : 1. A normal Redemption Island Challenge/Duel with three that survive and one that is eliminated, and joins the Jury 2. A Tribal Council where one of the four Ometepe players is voted out, and who is sent to Redemption Island 3. Another Redemption Island Challenge/Duel, but this time, TWO WINNERS THAT REJOIN THE MAIN GAME, and the remaining exiles/losers become part of the Jury 4. One last regular Tribal Council where TWO of those five (includes the two exiles that returned to the game) is voted out, and who join the Jury 5. A final Tribal Council - the "popularity vote" - where a winner is chosen from the "final three" remaining players Sables: lol we can guess till we are blue in the face, I love this version of survivor, keeps the mind going  |
