Survivor: Redemption Island (Page 7)

StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Crazy Phillip is aware of how obnoxious he is, but he laid out his grand strategy (at least for this episode), in one of his classic, hallucinogenic ranting explanations: “I think Rob feels very strongly that if it’s him and I in the final, that he can win the million dollars. But I have an oral argument that nobody here on my tribe, including him, has thought of it. I know EXACTLY what to say to make everybody think twice about voting for him, regardless of everything else I’ve said. Honestly, I think I can defeat Rob.”

So there you have it, folks! Crazy Phillip’s grand strategy! He’s going to do everything he can to become Rob’s fall guy, to alienate everyone as much as possible, and then, right at the end, he’s going to deliver a magic speech to persuade everyone to forget all of that and make him the winner. Yessirree, Bob! Crazy Phillip is … crazy! He damn near got himself voted out when Rob wavered for a short time, trying to decide if Phillip was just SO crazy that he’d have to go instead of Andrea.

Tribal Council presented no surprises, no real fireworks. Jeff Probst explored the simple fact that the game was now down to that tight group of six Ometepe members, and now, they were being forced to turn on each other. Natalie confessed that it was distressing, and “not fun” to her, while Andrea, clueless as to her fate, expressed that she had “confidence.”

Crazy Phillip went on a little rant that although he now, at age 52, no longer has the physical acumen he once had, and confessed that he was clearly outclassed by others in the physically demanding Immunity Challenge. But in classic Crazy Phillip style, he elaborated (bullshitted): “I’ve been waiting and hoping we could do something that required upper body strength because when I went in the Army, at 29, out of 1500 men, no man could outrun me, do more pushups, or do more sit-ups.” When prompted by Jeff, he also offered, “I have formed no alliances where I broke them …” (Hmm … I seem to remember how, in the very first episode, Phillip was in an alliance of three with Francesca and Kristina, and at the very first Tribal Council, suddenly outed that alliance, and outed Kristina for being in possession of a Hidden Immunity Idol. If that’s not breaking an alliance, what is?)

At any rate, Phillip, as Phillip does, ranted, bullshitted, and generally had everyone rolling their eyes and stifling laughter. Jeff, at this point, actually seems to be mocking Crazy Phillip, prompting him to entertain the group with his wacky imagined tales of greatness.

The vote, of course, went against Andrea, and it was kind of interesting to see her expression once her name was read for the second time. The first time Jeff said “Andrea,” she was expecting it, as she was expecting Crazy Richard to vote for her and then fall victim to the tribe. But the moment she heard her name intoned a second time, she knew she’d just been blindsided, and uttered, “Oh my God … !” Juror David correctly assessed the situation, and whispered to Steve: “She got blindsided!” Two more “Andrea” ballots were read, and that was that. As she gathered her belongings, she peevishly muttered to her tribe, “Tricky tricky …!” Andrea was not a happy Survivor player.

The show ended with Andrea sitting in the darkness, being interviewed for the benefit of the viewers, expressing how she was “bitter.” I can imagine Matt sitting at home, watching this on his television, and quoting Matthew 7:12: “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”
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Sables
Sables: I expected more from redemption island with four there, but maybe next week...

Otherwise everything else went as expected.

I don't care for how Rob has played the game but I can not dispute the fact that he plays it really well and does deserve to win, but maybe something will happen to change his course...he does realize that they could quite easily vote him off but seems content in the fact that he has not allowed any of them to get together to change the dynamics of the group, but alot could happen in the next week....
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: As I see it, there's no right or wrong way to play the game. Lying, coniving, conspiring, backstabbing ... anything like that should be considered no more wrong than bluffing in Poker. It's simply part of how the game is played.

Hypothetically, it's possible to never deceive anyone and still win, but I can't think of any player who's done it. A few have remained honest and made it almost to the end, but they came up short.

That's the most intriguing part of the game, and the part requiring the most skill. How do you screw over people, and still get them to ultimately vote for you? Figuring out how to do that is the way the game is won.

The only thing I would find that is out of bounds is doing something like purposefully trying to hurt someone, either physically, or emotionally. Phillip's "n#y%@*" rant was completely out of bounds, as far as I'm concerned. Past games have had other racial issues emerge, and I felt the same way each time. And I've forgotten the details, but I remember a few seasons ago, during a particularly physical Immunity Challenge, Jeff Probst actually stopped the game and disqualified a contestant for some sort of cheap shot that appeared to be an attempt to actually hurt someone.

But deceiving and lying, that is a vital part of the game.

The one thing I'm sort of torn by is the act of messing with someone's personal property, such as burying Phillip's shorts. I simply don't have a fixed position on things like that. For instance, stealing Phillip's shorts didn't bother me, but I'd be bothered if someone stole Matt's Bible.
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Sables
Sables: I agree with that, it would be malicious to steal Matt's bible.

And as I said I may not agree with Rob's method, but he is playing a very good game and playing to win, no matter what it takes.

I do think tho that he will have to win immunity again for next elimination, I think that this week everyone is going to have to bring their game to the table...
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Sables
Sables: when Steve walked onto Redemption Island, my thought was how he walked he looked like a walking corpse, like he was done in, I didn't think he would make it in the next challenge it sure looked like he wasn't trying in that challenge
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: That's true. Steve seemed to be done for.
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Sables
Sables: lol I agree wouldn't it be funny if they had and equal amount of each tribe and they managed to get a couple of Ometepe to vote with them and get Rob out, now that would be a surprise and it would be anyones game then.....
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: I just edited out that big speculation I detailed because I found an obvious flaw in it.

I'll re-post here in a few minutes after making corrections that take that into consideration.
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Sables
Sables: lol looks like I was out in left field
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: No, not really. But let me start from scratch with my speculations, which are essentially the same as before my edit. Conceptually, it's the same idea, but without a numerical error that I first made.

cough cough ... one more time ...

I've been continuing to wonder how and when the exiles on Redemption Island will be re-entering the main game. What this game seems to be heading for is something unprecedented in Survivor Lore:

A SECOND MERGE!

The question is, how will it happen? Let’s speculate, and look at the numbers:

Ometepe now consists of five (Rob, Grant, Natalie, Ashley and Crazy Phillip).

And there are again four on Redemption Island (Matt, Mike, Ralph and Andrea).

So let’s take the same game scheme we’ve seen lately, and project that to next week (Episode #13):

First there would be a four-way Duel to reduce the number of exiles to three again. Next there would be a Tribal Council to reduce the number of Ometepe down to four, with that loser transferring over to Redemption Island, raising the number to four again.

So if, next week (Episode #13), they continue the procedure as we saw it in Episode #12, the result will be an equal number of players in both groups. That strikes me as a pretty good time for a Second Merge, forming one large group of eight. But let’s say the game continues, without the Second Merge, beyond that and into the following episode:

Again, a Duel would reduce the exiles from four down to three, and again, Tribal Council would also reduce Ometepe from four down to three. However …

When the Tribal Council loser was then transferred over to Redemption Island, the numbers would then be uneven. There would then be four exiles, and only three in Ometepe. If they continue the current game scheme to this point, it will be necessary to again have a four-way Duel to reduce the number of exiles to three.

Again, this seems like a likely place to have a Second Merge, making a combined group of six.

I can’t see how they would continue beyond that scenario of three exiles and three in Ometepe without a Second Merge. Doing so would mean that the Exiles would outnumber Ometepe. I just can’t see that happening. It would also seem pretty obvious that once a Second Merge occurs, any subsequent Tribal Council losers will go directly to the jury, and Redemption Island will no longer be a part of the game scheme.

So, to summarize, I see a Second Merge coming soon in this game, and when it occurs, it’ll result in either a recombined group of eight players, or a recombined group of six players, and at that point, losing players will go directly to the jury instead of getting that second chance on Redemption Island.

Either way, it sets the game up for a very interesting battle between to groups of equal numbers. And it would seem to me that the subsequent Immunity Challenges will be even more critical then normal. Whoever wins the Challenge will be able to reduce the opposing group by one, of course.

Conspiracies, betrayals, and backstabbing at this point could be incredibly dramatic.
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Sables
Sables: absolutely as I said time to get their game hats on!
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Sables
Sables: I have been really enjoying this season and enjoying chatting with you about it
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Me too!

I had my doubts about the concept of "Redemption Island." I suppose I typically am a little conservative when it comes to tinkering with something that clearly works pretty good already. But I must admit that the concept works really well.

I saw an interview with Jeff Probst just before the season started, when he provided a brief description of how they were going to change the game scheme with "Redemption Island." As he explained it, the producers felt that the game scheme was flawed in that very often the best players of the game get eliminated too quickly simply because they're good players, and the idea behind Redemption Island provides them a second chance.

I have my arguments with that explanation, and I don't really think that what has happened reflects Jeff's explanation. Obviously, the one guy who has received the greatest degree of salvation (pun intended) on Redemption Island would be Matt. But is he really one of the better players? He's obviously good at winning Duels. His streak is really pretty impressive. But he allowed himself to be blindsided TWICE in the regular game, and of course, he's all wrapped up in this disatrous notion that God is instructing him on game tactics.

It can certainly be argued that Russell was an excellent Survivor player, albeit, one who has never won the big prize. I suppose he got his "second chance," but was, of course, handily beaten by Matt in the duel.

Regardless of whether or not it's functioning as Jeff had touted, it certainly functions in the way of providing another very interesting and dramatic dimension to the game. No one can argue that the saga of Matt, God, and Redemption Island hasn't been interesting and dramatic.

I can't wait to see the Matt and Andrea reunion!
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Sables
Sables: hahaha me too! Wish I was a fly on that hut

With the other games there was always an unknown factor but you still had an idea of who was going to the end, with this there is a wild card and you just don't know when it is going to get played or how...the suspence is great and I love it when I don't figure something out from the get go
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: The ads for next weeks episode strongly suggest that Crazy Phillip goes crazy, apparently pissing off everyone and leaving Rob to say something like, "The one thing I didn't want to have happen happened."

I'm guessing that Crazy Phillip's crazy "strategy" of annoying the hell out of everyone went too far, and Grant, Ashley and Natalie all want to get rid of him, fouling up Rob's plan of taking Phillip to the end.

I'm also guessing that the person Rob would prefer to vote out is Grant. He presents the greatest threat in Immunity Challenges.
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Sables
Sables: as I see it the girls have an alliance and they need to approach Grant and the next member brought back to get rid of Rob, he is the most dangerous and then I think Phil will settle down, because he would feel he is on the block next if he doesn't smarten up. Phil has taken the fact that he feels safe with Rob and let it go to his head.

Rob worked very hard in the last challenge, so hard that he had trouble recouperating, he realizes that he is in danger at this point in the game and will do whatever he can to get the immunity necklace, he has an idol but that will be available if the necklace isn't his.
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: As for a "girls alliance," while those girls tend to pal around together, looking like cute bookends in bikinis, I'd like to remind you that Natalie told Rob a bald-faced lie about Ashley specifically to sow the seeds of suspicion about her. (Read the account of that in the last post on page 7.) Ashley may be thinking she's in a "girls alliance," but she's already been betrayed. Unless Natalie has made a some major changes in her strategy that we don't know about, she's after Ashley's scalp.
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Sables
Sables: Yes she is playing the game, she has both sides covered, her friend does not know that she ratted her out, and she has made herself look good in Rob's eyes so that will make her feel safe and Rob believes the she is in his control. But I think that in order to get Rob out of the game she has to use the other girl, which will be easy I believe for her to do, and get two other's ~Grant I believe would be ready and wise enough to realize that it is time for Rob to go, and then the last obvious Zamapeta to come back, and they would not be hard to convince Rob has to go...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: I gotta make sure you have this straight:

Natalie didn't "rat her out." She went one further:

She LIED about Ashley!

She told Rob that Ralph had asked Ashley "don't tell Rob we talked." Didn't happen! It was a big, fat lie!

She then told Rob that Ashley said to Ralph, "Okay. I won't tell Rob we talked." Didn't happen! It was a big, fat lie!

Natalie is devious!
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Sables
Sables: that is true, but like I say she has her bases covered in doing that, Rob secure that she is under his control and her friend has no idea that she has been thrown to the wolves...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Natalie is the player Rob trusts the most. He want's to take her and Phillip to the final three.

He has no idea she played him. I have no doubt Natalie will try to backstab Rob at some point.

I'm not sure who Natalie wants to go to the final three with. Any ideas?
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Sables
Sables: well Ashley is obvious, Grant is too much competition, so it would have to be either Phil... I know groan, but he sucks in challenges, or possibly a survivor from redemption
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Phillip is the obvious pick for EVERYONE. But since Natalie and Ashley are almost interchageable, I wonder if either one wants to go up against the other in the final vote. I think Natalie has a slight edge in challenges. She's actually one Immunity once, something Ashley hasn't done. Perhaps Natalie would have that in mind ...

Take Ashley and Phillip to the final three, hope that Ashley gets eliminated, and the final vote is between her and Phillip. That makes as much sense as anything else, I think.
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Sables
Sables: yup looks good to me...


well way past my bedtime, have a good one Sits
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: The Tribe has spoken.
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