Survivor: Redemption Island (Page 4)

Sables
Sables: I do think she is someone to watchout for, it was a good move on her part to start the little worm called doubt in Rob's mind...Because now he is thinking of getting rid of Ashley but he still has her under his control, and needs her vote to do his bidding until the other tribe has been obliterated, then she is gone....He will try and keep Phreaky Phil around till the last because he will be the easiest to beat, unless Phil is really what they call a "sleeper"
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: I'm really curious to know what's gonna happen with the guys sent to Redemption Island. Even the little preview at the end of the show gave no clue just what they're doing.
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Sables
Sables: yes any alliances made could get royally screwed lol this new survivor Redemption Island is good
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Rich_Is_Here!
Rich_Is_Here!: I think it comes down to what the host was hinting around about! which was either one goes home, one reenters the main group, and one stays on redemption Island!
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Rich_Is_Here! Says:
“I think it comes down to what the host was hinting around about! which was either one goes home, one reenters the main group, and one stays on redemption Island!”

I still have the program recorded, and went back to see if I’d missed that “hint.” Nowhere in the program does Jeff Probst say anything like that.
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Sables
Sables: I don't remember that either...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: While Jeff didn't say anything about it, I did speculate about the possibilities in my last big overblown recap-analysis:

~ A duel-challenge for the three exiles, in which there are two winners that remain on Redemption Island, while the loser becomes the first jury member
~ A duel-challenge for the three exiles, in which there is one winner that remains on Redemption Island, while the other two become the first two jury members
~ A duel-challenge for the three exiles, in which there is a winner that rejoins the other players, while the remaining two remain on Redemption Island, to be joined by a third after the next Tribal Council
~ A duel-challenge for the three exiles, in which one winner rejoins the other players, one loser becomes the first jury member, and the in-betweener remains on Redemption Island, to be joined by another after the next Tribal Council (I think that this the possibility Rich_Is_Here! is talking about.)

… and the most interesting possibility …

~ People are voted out in Tribal Council, and sent to Redemption Island until, at some point, they become a second tribe that competes against Murilonio
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Sables
Sables: I agree the last would definately be very interesting
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Actually, in looking my list of possibilities over, I see that the wording I used could be better ... I'm going to reiterate that list in a different way, which I think will be clearer and easier to comprehend.

First, in any of these scenarios, there are always FOUR people involved: the three currenly on Redemption Island (Players A,B and C) and the next person voted out in Tribal Council (Player D).

Secondly, there are two scenarios where the current scheme of having three residents on Redemption Island is preserved, and two scenarios where it reverts back to the previous scheme of having two residents on Redemption Island.

Scenario #1 (continues the current scheme of 3 residents on Redemption Island) :
~ Player A survives the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player B survives the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player C loses the 3-way duel, and becomes a jury member
~ Player D is voted out in Tribal Council, and joins Players A & B on Redemption Island

Scenario #2 (continues the current scheme of 3 residents on Redemption Island) :
~ Player A is the sole winner of the 3-way duel, and rejoins the tribe
~ Player B loses the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player C loses the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player D is voted out in Tribal Council, and joins Players B & C on Redemption Island

Scenario #3 (reverts back to the original scheme of 2 residents on Redemption Island) :
~ Player A is the sole winner of the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player B loses the 3-way duel and becomes a jury member
~ Player C loses the 3-way duel and becomes a jury member
~ Player D is voted out in Tribal Council, and joins Player A on Redemption Island

Scenario #4 (reverts back to the original scheme of 2 residents on Redemption Island) :
~ Player A is the sole winner of the 3-way duel, and rejoins the tribe
~ Player B is 2nd place in the 3-way duel, and remains on Redemption Island
~ Player C loses the 3-way duel, and becomes a jury member
~ Player D is voted out in Tribal Council, and joins Player A on Redemption Island

And there is one other very interesting scenario:

~ As people are voted out in Tribal Council, they are sent to Redemption Island until, at some point, that group becomes a second tribe that competes against Murilonio
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Here are some other things to consider:

In the two scenarios where a player returns to the tribe by winning a 3-way duel, there is also a player that's been voted out in Tribal Council. So ...

Will the returning player take part in that Tribal Council ...

... or ...

... will there be a dramatic circumstance where one player is returning to the tribe, and one is leaving the tribe, and they pass each other going in opposite directions?

Also, regardless of whatever happens, there is going to be some situation where the concept of Redemption Island comes to an end. That should also be a dramatic moment in the game.
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Rich_Is_Here!
Rich_Is_Here!: I remember Jeff saying in the pre show that there may not be a Jury! The jury would maybe be people left on Redemption Island! But still in the game!
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Okay ... let's go to the DVR ...

Nope. He doesn't say that, or anything remotely like that.

I'd suggest you go to the official CBS/Survivor website. Undoubtedly, they have a way to view that episode.
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Sables
Sables: lol Sits

you seem to have a lot of time on your hands lol
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Nah ...
... well ... yeah, I suppose so. But I love the show, and really like this season.

But that only took a couple minutes, and I was trying to give the guy the benefit of the doubt. And if he was right, I wanted to know. But that "pre-show" as he called it, only goes for a couple of minutes. And the disc is sitting right here on my desk.

I'm really enjoying doing these long, detailed analyses of the show. Because of the process involved in doing them, stuff that I missed while just sitting there watching the show actually winds up becoming very apparent, such as Natalie's baldfaced LIE about Ashley. I watched the show completely unaware that that had happened. Perhaps my mind was just wandering or something right then. And when I went back and scrutinized it, when she told that lie to Rob, and when Rob subsequently confided privately in an aside to viewers that Ashley was now a target, I thought, "Holy shit!" and realized that that quickly passing moment has the potential to be a very important moment in the game.

Same thing with the moment when Andrea tried to reassure Matt that she was on his side, and as she tried to do that, he totally alienated her by cutting her off mid-sentence, a combination of self-centered semi-boorishness and alarmingly reckless strategy plans he laid on her. At that moment, I thought, "He just turned her against himself for no reason."

It also gives me an excuse to write, which I enjoy.
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Sables
Sables: I do enjoy reading your posts and looking at your pics

And I agree this Redemption Island is really good, I have not watched survivor for a few years, I like the ones that you have to use your brain a little more, with this extra little twist in the game makes it a little harder to figure out what is going to happen, rather than waiting for them to compete and then vote someone off there is this hanging over their heads and no one has any idea what could happen, I think they need to be very careful with the alliances that are made in the next while.

I think the best bet is to make some secret alliances, go along with Rob to get the most people off and then get rid of him like I had said a few posts back.
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: I just saw one of those little CBS commercials for the upcoming episode that dwells on what appears to be a nasty spat between Creepy Phillip and Steve. I just don't understand why those Zapatera knotheads insist on antagonizing Phillip. He's obviously the best bet for an Ometepe to be turned against his friends. Why are they antagonizing him instead of trying to seduce him to their side? It makes no sense.
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Sables
Sables: I so agree with you again, lol seems all I do on here, but I said that in an earlier post as well.
They are getting too low and I think they really need to get someone over on their side to balance things out, because right now Rob has complete control over his team mates, and they are, well most of them, trusting and following him, his right hand mate tho did make a comment that Rob doesn't control him when he went for that bite of fish, but he moved away when Rob said something to him...and think this guy and Phreaky Phil are the best bet for the other team to build and alliance..
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Either there's a very sophisticated conspiracy at work, with Phillip as the key player (Nah ... I simply can't believe that) or Zapatera has essentially just given up trying to play any sort of social game at all, and are just clutching to the remote possibility that some miracle will happen or something. They should have been working on Phillip from the moment that merge happened.

Just imagine if this happened a short time after the merge:

Phillip asks Andrea to take a little walk (if you remember, Phillip has always resented Ashley and Natalie for being lazy around camp, and seems to kind of like Andrea) ...

On the little walk, "just by chance," they bump into Mike and David, who explain to Andrea, "We're going to move against Rob. Phillip is already with us ..." (Phillip nods to Andrea and smiles) "... and we want you on board with us too."

They could have blown the game wide open right there and then.
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Sables
Sables: just perfect.... a perfect scenario but I don't think Rob would let the two of them together because of the little history that they do have...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Rob has to take a shit like everyone else.

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Sables
Sables: lol I was thinking about that...but Rob probably will follow just to make sure that they don't chat with the other tribe...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Zapatera lost their chance. At this point, Rob is, and should be, pretty comfortable in regards to Zapatera. They're just far too outnumbered now. Let's see who's in the game now ...

Ometepe:
Rob
Natalie
Andrea
Ashley
Grant
Creepy Phillip

Zapatera:
Steve
Julie
Ralph

That's nine players total. In order to pull off a move against Ometepe, Zapatera would need to turn no less than two of them. If you were any one of those Ometepe members, would you feel comfortable jumping ship and going to Zapatera in these circumstances? I sure wouldn't.

Let's explore the possibilities further. Let's say that one of the Redemption Island exiles is released back into the tribe. Here are the conceivable possibilities for that person:

1. Join the three Zapaterans - now you're in a group that is outnumbered 6-4. Bleak ...
2. Join the six Ometepeans - now you're in a group outnumbering the others 7-3, but you're at the bottom of the pecking order, and everyone is going to be EXTREMELY leery of you
3. Let it be known that you're not a part of EITHER group, that you can go either way. Still, Ometepe is going to see you as an enemy that can't be trusted.

Okay, let's say that TWO exiles are released. First off, the best thing they can do is to stick together, and whatever they do, they do it together. Here are their possibilities:

1. Join Ometepe, and again, become the lowest in the order of the power group.
2. Join Zapatera, and again be a part of the group that is outnumbered. However, now Zapatera would be outnumbered only 6-5. If they joined Zapatera, and Zapatera also managed to turn a Ometepean, it would turn the tables on Rob. Success in such an endeavor would all hinge on whether or not they could get someone - Phillip - to turn against Ometepe. Given Zapatera's antagonistic behavior toward him, and the little preview commercials they've been showing, this is a very unlikely possibility.
3. Pledge allegiance to neither tribe. Again, Ometepe will still see you as a threat.

I think if it was me that got released from Redemption Island, I'd try to corner Rob, and lay it on the line that I figured the best opportunity I had was to be realistic, and hitch my wagon to his. I'd acknowledge that obviously I represented a threat, and I'd acknowledge in order to survive, I'd need to overcome that. So I'd tell Rob: "Tell me what you want me to do that will improve my standing with you." And then I'd do that.

I think for a returnee, the best angle is to become TOTALLY subserviant to Rob, and try to hold on long enough for some meaningful conspiracy within Rob's trusted group to finally take place, as it will inevitably have to. If you can hold on long enough, and if Rob decided that it was more to his advantage to jettison one of his group of six - Ashley perhaps? - then you'd have a pretty good shot at continuing into the game.

Personally, I think Matt is just plain screwed. But if Mike or David were to return, and kiss Rob's ring, they might actually have a chance.

Keep in mind that it's almost certain that at some point in this game, there is going to be a big move against Rob. If you can somehow hang on until then, you have a decent chance. In fact, if I were Julie, Steve or Ralph, I'd be looking for a way to put myself at Rob's service. He doesn't really need them, of course. They pretty much screwed themselves over the course of the last few episodes. But it would probably be the best bet they had.
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Sables
Sables: I do believe any chance they had is lost, before the last eliminations they had one if they could have won over one of the other team, but Phil would have been the obvious one to try for as he is the least popular with the other team, the problem is that Phil needs validation in rl, and Rob is now "listening" to Phil's "stories" not because he believes him but to win his "loyalty" as per say by being a "friend" ( I use the terms listening, loyalty and friend loosely in Rob's case) this is Rob's way to "stroke" Phil's ego and consider Rob as a "friend" so he doesn't tell everyone what is going on.
I believe that Ralph is the next on the hit list, the shemale and then steve, then Rob will work on whittling down his tribe...probably his right hand man will go first as he needs the girls to vote him off and then Ashley.
Alot of this contends on who wins imunity and finds an idol.
If the other team happens to get imunity and an idol after their team is down to two, then Rob will have to vote off one of his team mates, in this case they will see that none of them are really safe and might be willing to start up an alliance with the other two...
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StuckInTheSixties
StuckInTheSixties: Everything you say makes a great deal of sense ... but ...

Keep in mind that we really have no idea just what is going to happen with Redemption Island, the exiles, and what the producers of the game are going to spring on everyone in that regard. This is one of the reasons I like this season a lot. We can make predictions, but only within the context that we know about.

Also ... is there another Hidden Immunity Idol to be found? They haven't really told viewers one way or the other. I think we'd agree that in all likelihood, there is, but in the last game, there wasn't any little rolled-up clue stuck in the food, or anything like that, was there?

Winning Immunity in a challenge is always important, of course, but it wouldn't protect Zapatera as a group. For example, say Steve wins Immunity in a challenge. That just means that Ometepe votes for either Julie or Ralph.

But ...

If it exists, finding a Hidden Immunity Idol could put a HUGE hit on Ometepe. Remember, while an Immunity Necklace is awarded in front of everyone, a Hidden Immunity Idol can be devastating if it's existence is kept secret.

Imagine this happening:

~ One of the Zapatera members finds a Hidden Immunity Idol
~ Ometepe has no idea of that happening
~ Ometepe votes for a certain Zapatera player
~ After the vote, when Jeff asks if anyone has a Hidden Immunity Idol, someone pulls it out, and plays it to protect the person Ometepe voted for

The rules are that any votes for that person are invalidated. That would mean that Zapatera would be able to vote out someone on Ometepe!
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Sables
Sables: everything was conjecture, lots of things could happen to change things, it does really keep us wondering what is going to happen with the others that have been voted off to redemtion island, but it would be a good laugh for that to happen, if they actually got a chance to vote someone off, Rob had better kiss his sweet hiney goodbye
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