Mini Ice Age? (Page 53)

duncan124
duncan124:

Strangely, or maybe because of the absence of Arctic Sea ice, the weather over the UK has been divided East and West with a very long stretch of wind coming from between the north of Greenland and the Svalbard island crossing Iceland and reaching south to the Bay of Biscay. Covering Ireland and brushing the west coast of the mainland and north Scotland

Meantime there is little wind on the eastern North Sea side all the way to Norway and almost back to Svalbard.

It feels about 2 or 3 here on the east side and Nullschool shows Ireland at about the same temp.

While Norway and the north of Scotland are shown as much colder.

So the disrupted PV has so far made the British Isles warmer while winds from the much colder Scandinavia are waiting to bring freezing weather. But there has been more rain in the UK.

If the two weather systems from Greenland and Scandinavia had joined it would have been the start of a very snowy winter.
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duncan124
duncan124:

Looking at the NSIDA Arctic sea ice for December,...

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

...the sea ice caused the other split in the wind direction. The every cold wind from Siberia turned either north or south causing the weather mentioned above just at the edge where the sea ice starts

The other factors are the warmer water near Norway and the cold ground masses of Greenland and Svalbard which the sea ice is obviously hanging on to and which are probably helping to keep the sea ice from retreating still more.

The only other thing to keep us despairing is the fact that Norway remains free of sea ice even away from the warmer waters because it still catches some sunlight which stops the ice from building up on the sea. Not that its not cold enough.
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duncan124
duncan124:

" Extreme cold temperatures rip through the Siberian region, with the mercury dropping to record lows for an entire week into Tuesday, December 29, 2020. Air temperatures as piercing as -51 °C (-59.8 °F) have been holding for a week, and record low temperatures are being recorded every day." The watchers

https://watchers.news/2020/12/30/siberia-extreme-record-breaking-cold-december-2020/

So the source of this cold wind was Siberia and it travelled towards Canada until it split in to two directions some turning ninety degrees to go south and some ninety to go North!

"Unseasonal, record-breaking storm hits Nunavut, Canada.
Posted by Julie Celestial on December 30, 2020 ..."The Watchers. This would also seem to be due to the winds across the north of Greenland

The watchers predicts colder weather due to SSW and I guess more disruption to the PV. Which has at the moment returned to the new normal.

https://watchers.news/2020/12/23/major-sudden-stratospheric-warming-january-2021/
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duncan124
duncan124:

Severe storms at the new gate way to Europe...

" 2020 will end with a spectacular “Day After Tomorrow” extratropical event, as one of the most intense North Pacific storm on record heads straight for the Aleutian Islands

"The North Pacific sees no rest this winter. And now, the weather has decided to challenge the all-time pressure record for the region. The combination of the deep Arctic cold over Siberia, the advection of a warm Pacific tropical air mass, and the extremely powerful 250 mph jet stream separating these two air masses is resulting in an *explosive* extratropical storm with its central pressure forecast to bottom out near 920 mbar and blast into the Aleutian Islands." Severe Weather Europe.

...but will they reach the mainland??

Maybe it was a Pacific storm that helped move the extreme cold in Siberia across to Canada, but it could also have caused a warming updraft from further south.
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duncan124
duncan124:
No wonder there are mega storms in the north Pacific the PV has a sister vortex half as big as the PV itself and with its centre at the very north of the Sea of Orkhetsk.

While the PV is now very large reaching down to almost to north Africa on the Atlantic side with the centre of the vortex over the north of Greenland, it seems to be moving a side to make way its new Pacific sibling.

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duncan124
duncan124:

Storms of Madness at the New Gateway to Europe!!

"All-time pressure records set at the end of 2020: North Pacific extratropical storm peaks at 921 mbar, extreme cold in Mongolia sets new world record with 1094 mbar" SWE

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-extratropical-storm-bomb-cyclone-alaska-pacific-mk/

SWEs record of the " monster storm " which brought a meter of snow to Japan before moving quickly to the Aleutian Islands and

" had an *EXTREME* 75 mbar pressure fall over the 36-hour period (from 996 mbar to 921 mbar) between Wednesday, Dec 30th 00 UTC and Thursday, Dec 31st 12 UTC."

mentions that " As this deep and extreme cold Arctic air mass interacted with the strong Pacific jet stream, ....

..but doesn't mention the stratospheric vortex that has been turning above the rapid series of storms in the North Pacific between Japan and the Aleutian Islands.

The disrupted PV that was the lead up to these storms after its circulation began to return to a normal circuit looks set to have yet more disruption as it now appears to close to splitting in two in the next few days.


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duncan124
duncan124:
Nullschool predicts that the North Pacific vortex will edge the PV out of the Arctic and effectively become the new Polar Vortex as it finally finds its way between the narrow straights between Russia and Canada.

The old PV centre will move to within a few hundred miles north of Scotland, equidistant from Iceland and Norway, by the 7th of Jan
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Campion
Campion: Duncan --- there are no narrow straights between Russia and Canada
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duncan124
duncan124:
Ah!-- OK Alaska .
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duncan124
duncan124:

"Powerful winter storms bring severe winds and snow to Alaska, Pacific Northwest and Canada"

"An ongoing La Niña is resulting in above-average cyclone activity over the North Pacific-- much of the storms are gaining strength rapidly, moving towards the Aleutian Islands, Alaska mainland, or the Pacific Northwest.

On Tuesday, January 5, an impressive and deep extratropical storm has formed over the far North Pacific, just days after the most intense North Pacific storm on record hit the Aleutian Islands, which had a record low pressure of 921 hPa, Severe Weather Europe's Marko Korosec said." The Watchers.

https://watchers.news/2021/01/06/powerful-winter-storms-to-bring-severe-winds-and-snow-to-alaska-pacific-northwest-and-canada/

This is the situation when the La Nina reacts with the Polar Vortex and has the resources, this time supplied by the Pacific, to create serious weather just as the text books says it does.

The PV is so disrupted that it is split in two, the smaller new neat vortex is centred between Russia and Canada and the old PV is centred between Norway and Iceland and spreading down to North Africa.

If the new PV was to break up it would probably fall over western Canada and America.

While if the old PV was to join the new that would probably happen over the Pacific.



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duncan124
duncan124:

Four days without Sunspots.

We would have been wondering how long this stretch was going to last if the Sunspots had not stopped completely for months only to restart and run continuously for another two months.

The comparison between Solar Quiet and Polar storms is interesting.
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duncan124
duncan124:
"A triple extratropical low threat heads for Alaska with a massive winter storm tonight, a new exploding storm later this week...

North Pacific weather pattern is on roll, it keeps producing storm after storm, almost on daily basis this winter. Currently, there is a triple extratropical storm threat ongoing, with a massive winter storm blasting Southeast Alaska with hurricane-force winds today and tonight. New intense storms..." SWE 6th Jan

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/extratropical-winter-storm-alaska-mk/

Despite the raging storms the allure of the Arctic Passage and a quick route to the warm Pacific is still strong.
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duncan124
duncan124:

With its centre still between Iceland, Norway and Scotland the old PV is losing to the new neater North Pacific PV ,( NPPV) which is going to divide the old vortex across its centre over the North Sea!

The old PV shaped like an elastic band tried to reach to the other side of the NPPV but couldn't stretch so far south over the Pacific after being pushed to cover North Africa, with at one point its eastern side turning over the Nile delta.

What happens when the PV divides again is an interesting question as the far bigger PV will spill much of its cold winds and perhaps form only one vortex.

Then what happens after that??
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duncan124
duncan124:

Severe Weather Europe has now published its report of the recent Polar Vortex events.

" The Polar Vortex now collapsing, is set to release the Arctic Hounds for the United States and Europe, as we head for the second half of Winter 2020/2021"

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-winter-weather-europe-united-states-2021-fa/

And its long page includes a guide to Polar Vortexes for those who have not met them before as well as analysis of the turbulent last few weeks and informed forecasts based on previous PV splits.

I think it has under valued the danger of the storms in the North Atlantic and more so the cyclone which formed under the old PV between Iceland and Norway and which is expected to head down the North Sea.

It was fairly obvious that the growing disturbances in the North Atlantic were connected to the NPPV as it moved between Canada and Russia. Storm Filomena delivered historic colds and heavy snow falls before heading north to help stop the storm from Iceland reaching the south of the North Sea.

"On Wednesday, January 6, Spain registered its coldest temperature on record when the mercury in Catalan Pyrenees station dropped to -34.1 °C (-29.4 °F), breaking the previous record set on February 2, 1956. " The Watchers.

https://watchers.news/2021/01/09/historic-snow-madrid-coldest-temperature-spain-storm-filomena-january-2021/

It must be noted that Iceland, Greenland and now Spain have all had record breaking storms in recent weeks.

I think SWE has underestimated the danger from a cyclone such as the one in the north North Sea if it reaches the East Coast of England, Denmark, Poland or Germany as it can remain there in strength form some time even if it had travelled over Norway and Sweden.

So! Hey Ho for the Hounds of the Arctic. Soon they might be howling round our roof tops. I hope they don't bite!


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kittybobo34
kittybobo34: I imagine you guys in the near arctic... like Norway.. are looking forward to global warming.
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duncan124
duncan124:
...are looking forward to holidays in Spain.

Now its ten days without Sunspots.

The burst of activity from the Sun has disorganised the stratosphere and now the Solar calm will return....

What does it mean???
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duncan124
duncan124:
The old PV is collapsing into two new vortexes. One over the southern tip of Greenland and the other behind the Urals and far eastern Russia.

While the NPPV has created three more cyclones in the same places as it did seven days ago, see post above.

If this weather pattern is the result of the two polar vortexes rubbing against each other then what will be the result of three vortexes rolling around together???
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duncan124
duncan124:

Severe weather Europe has found a similar weather pattern in 1928/9.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/

Some time ago in this or another thread Wireclubers had come to the conclusion that early 1930s , and the cold weather then, was the closest to this weak solar cycle.

1928/9 would be in Cycle 16 I think
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duncan124
duncan124:

" Solar Minimum, how can we miss you if you won't go away? " Spaceweather

A small sunspot breaks the Solar Quiet making it a 12day spotless stretch.

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duncan124
duncan124:

The final division of the old stratospheric Polar Vortex seems settled upon with the North American vortex disintegrating leaving the newer Russian vortex as its heir.

I had thought that two vortexes would form at the end of the old PV but clearly the North American is unable to form a complete circuit and as the old weather patterns had indicated it is going to break down and blow the wintery storms from America across the pond.

During the breakdown of the PV the lower levels became very confused and at one point the southern hemisphere became very windy as I guess the polar forces fled south.

It seems the high pressure over Siberia was the key element in deciding the future of the PV. It also means that we can expect warmer weather for two years I seem to remember, but with some caveats.

Meantime the North Pacific Polar Vortex has been strangely trapped between the land masses of Russia and North America unable to leave the oceans completely while all the while driven north towards the pole.

First and for an extraordinary long time, it was caught between Alaska and the Russian Island near Japan until it finally slid through the narrow straights into the Arctic Ocean. There it has rebounded rapidly between Russia and Canada crossing the frozen waters with great speed and lingering on the shores as long as possible.

If the NPPV takes the place of the PV over North America will it bring more cold and wet to the already cold continent??
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duncan124
duncan124:

The NPPV has refused to leave the pacific side of the Arctic ocean as the old PV moves ever further eastwards.

The Former USA is almost without any PV above it while Europe and Russia are covered by all of the old PV with the centre of the PV over Sweden.

Nullschool now predicts the old PV will move next to the new one on its Russian side.
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kittybobo34
kittybobo34: We Americans have figured out how to turn on those wind mills, and blow the cold air North and East to England , Iceland, and Norway (mad scientist laughing)
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duncan124
duncan124:
A sudden change of character in the NPPV leaves it overland above Alaska and very much weakened.

While the old PV has stretched to the Sea of Orkhetsk one side of its flatten circuit flows back across the Arctic ocean to Iceland and the North of Scotland turning at Ireland to go over Europe to Russia.

The old PV could reform a neat circuit over the pole. I think the lack of sea ice is going to bring new weather to Europe and perhaps no weather to North America.
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duncan124
duncan124:

Maybe the collapsed PV caused the influence of the two recent storms either side of the UK to be over estimated.

Storms from the Bay of Biscay and the west side of France always cause ground water to back up flooding streams, drains, ditches and farmers fields. This is not caused by direct precipitation but by the wind and seas forcing the water on the ground back.
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duncan124
duncan124:
"Strangely, or maybe because of the absence of Arctic Sea ice, the weather over the UK has been divided East and West with a very long stretch of wind coming from between the north of Greenland and the Svalbard island crossing Iceland and reaching south to the Bay of Biscay. Covering Ireland and brushing the west coast of the mainland and north Scotland" 25 days ago

I started this page with this observation and the situation is much the same even after two storms one on either side of the UK,

The wind is still coming from the Arctic Ocean and pushing the Mid Atlantic winds around.

I think that the weather is now very much influenced by the Arctic Ocean because it was ice free for much of the long summer. With the NPPV lasting so long and seeming to influence the North Atlantic weather it is not so surprising that the long and narrowish ocean causes long bands of weather even in the stratosphere, but questions surrounding the North Pacific Polar vortex are more of a problem.

Why was it unable to cross the gateway to the Arctic and the Pole?? And why did it hug the coastlines after it had entered the frozen ocean only to skate from east to west shore lines with great speed??

I think the weather is now set for another warm summer this and maybe a warmer one next year.

So the weather is heading for a return to the picture postcard weather of the past with long hot summers and cold snowy winters for some?
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