Mini Ice Age? (Page 33)

duncan124:

Yes, this year willl be a record year for days without Sunspots if the sun keeps going as it has.

It might not be a record breaker but will be added to the list of special years.

Even if the sun has more Sunspots nearer 2020 when the new cycle starts people will look at it as an example.

duncan124:


Cold in my back yard.

".... official data revealing England is currently on for it’s 17th coldest June in records dating back to 1659.

The Central England Temperature (CET) record measures the monthly mean surface air temperatures for the Midlands region of England, and is the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence.

It’s current mean reading for June 2019 (provisional to the 14th) is 12.6C (54.7F) — that’s 1C below the historically cool 1961-1990 average, the current standard period of reference for climatological data used by the WMO.

In recent years, only the June’s of 1991, 1977 and 1971 ran colder. Before that, you have to back to 1923, 1916, 1908, 1906, 1860, 1823, 1821, 1749, 1745, 1725, 1705, 1698 and 1689 to find cooler months of June.

This month’s cold temperatures and reduced sunlight hours will have already hampered the growth of many open-field crops, which in turn will pile further pressure...."

https://electroverse.net/central-england-on-course-for-its-17th-coldest-june-in-360-years-of-records-crop-concerns-grand-solar-minimum/


And we are not half way through June!

duncan124:
Look at it the other way around for your own health at least. Cars, Cattle Farming and Coal fired Power Stations and Coal Mines all needed legislation to bring them up to standard and to ensue they progressed to modern ways of operating.

There are still big problems with all three industries which have not been solved in part because of the guff from the climate change people.

Instead of people saying You can;t make that mess near me, I have my rights valued and protected we have no voice and Crowd Funded, Cloud Based Clap Trap!!

Death became them.

Billions died and still today the Governments are in denial, so they they could do it again no doubt.

duncan124:
But millions died in Australia while the Australian Government was functioning because the cities were unclean.

duncan124:

I have said here on Wireclub that Coal Fired power stations all have scrubbers which remove all pollutants , and make a profit. So there is no point writing more guff about that.

I don't have to stop driving a car just to choose the least polluting I can afford.

Someone around here is dictating but it isn't me.

If you had understood what you were reading then you would know that I have said all politicians are no good and you should think for yourself and try to consider the facts as best you can.

And most of all you must avoid the Official Options.

duncan124:

Any historian looking at the events would consider sequence in which all these things happened and when things were said.

The fact that the environment was being destroyed and Governments did nothing to stop it must be equated with the fact that nothing being said or done by the Climate Change party stopped or was intended to stop the environmental destruction as it occurred.

Also, as neither Governments or Climate Activists admitted that mass death was taking away so many people whatever they said or did must be considered the actions of very low quality people.

duncan124:

With the sudden drop in Thermosphere Climate Index also comes the idea that the Solar Minimum conditions will allow more X rays to reach us.


Spaceweather shows an increase in the red flights where more X rays are expected but because of its militaristic back ground does not quantify X rays very well.

Indeed the whole of its reporting is thrown in to doubt by the lies generated by its inability to tell the truth caused by the amazing lengths the USA went to to hide the way it studied radiation.

Obviously there were no balloons and no flights but the amount of x rays is estimated by some secret method.


More of these Cosmic Rays will reach Earth because the Earths magnetic field is weakened and the Sun in Solar Minimum does not provide the protection it did.

Maybe causing more rain and a further drop in temperature on the ground.

duncan124:

Cosmic Rays reaching Earth increase in advance of the other indices of the Solar Cycle.

So the look out is still for the sunspots that will indicate the start of the next solar cycle.

But as the Sun takes two years to go from one cycle to the next we will have to live with more Cosmic rays for sometime.

It is now 29 days without a Sunspot.

Angry Beaver: Nuclear power is the way!

duncan124:

Indeed, the inner workings of the Sun are thought to include the " other " nuclear power which remains mysterious to mankind.

duncan124:

Spaceweather continues to look at the exceptional NCLs

"On the evening of June 17th, a large area of our sky was covered by noctilucent clouds, even directly overhead," reports Marek Nikodem of Szubin, Poland. "Simply mysterious, beautiful, stunning, unpredictable and photogenic--this season is unbelievable." Spaceweather.

And has a large photo gallery from parts of Europe.

I think that as in many natural events it is a combination of factors that cause such big changes and point to the numbers of meteor showers that overlap with close NEOs

Topic: Science

My idea was that a slightly hardened atmosphere was causing meteors to break up in to dust.

Spaceweather adds

"...EUV radiation can destroy those water molecules before they freeze. Less EUV during Solar Minimum could therefore give us more noctilucent clouds. " Spaceweather.

Watch the skys perhaps something else will happen!!

duncan124:


Solar Cycle length predicts the temperature of the next Solar Cycle. Short cycles mean a hotter cycle next and longer cycles mean a less energetic cycle next.

J.-E. Solheim, K. Stordahl, and O. Humlum, “The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24,” Submitted to Journal of Atmospheric and SolarTerrestrial Physics, 2011.


Does a less energetic cycle in terms of Sunspots mean a cold temperature here on Earth?

Well yes it does in Ireland and Norway. But the length of the SC is measured in several ways and Sunspots are good for the end and start of a SC and just OK for overall Solar activity.


"A linear relation exists in the temperature series from Svalbard between the length of a solar cycle and the average temperature in the next solar cycle.

" The yearly average and the winter temperatures can be modelled as a function of the length of the previous solar cycle, with highly significant negative trends.We call this the PSCL regression model."

" A measure of the solar contribution is the coefficient of determination r2 ≈ 0.6 for the PSCL year and winter models. This indicates that about 60% of the temperature variation can be attributed to solar activity for the yearly average and the winter average temperatures. "

SolarActivityandSvalbardTemperatures
Jan-ErikSolheim,1 KjellStordahl,2 andOleHumlum3,4
1Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, 9037 Tromsø, Norwa


So, is SC24 a long or a short cycle?? We will have to wait and see but no one seems to be saying just now.

duncan124:

Meantime, while you are thinking about that and doing the maths, take a look at the Southern Hemisphere on Nullschool Earth at 10hPa !

That looks like a very large and energetic polar vortex! Even the North African skys and all the way across the Mid Atlantic have turned red.


.

duncan124:

Looking at the NCLs again and remembering the high level cloud wave pattern that spread across the North Sea even just to the UKs East Coast earlier this year and on previous years.

Aren't the NCLs just a side show and the real story is a strange calm in the Northern Hemisphere which is allowing any weather pattern to become the dominant event as there is so little else happening to disturb its growth??

The drop in the Thermosphere Climate Index must mean much more cold air and so it is not a surprise that there is more frozen water at high altitudes.

The Index has stopped falling and may even be rising slightly now.

duncan124:

Spaceweather now says it is extra moisture reaching the Mesosphere.

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/06/19/mysterious-moisture-in-the-mesosphere/

http://www.spaceweather.com/

The animated graph is a little hard to read and seems to show a sharp drop that follows 2018s drop compared to other years while 2019 is way ahead of other years at lower altitudes

duncan124:

Spaceweathers idea that there is extra water in the sky and that is responsible for the extra NCLs has actually been refuted by scientific papers.

But the obvious statement that with more water about it is very likely that more would find its way, well , just about anywhere is going to hold back the pundits.

As I remember the paper said it was the motion of the air in the Mesosphere that was the key to the formation and life of the ice crystals. And that was related to the quality of the light from the sun.

Dr Cohens report of the prolonged Atmospheric Coupling, see previous pages, shows another likely factor in the extra NCLS as the different layers in the atmosphere don't mix much.

duncan124:

Severe Weather Europe has spotted a heat wave next week.

Amongst the troughs bringing all this wet weather SWE sees one that will flip it over to extra hot weather.

"The latest model guidance by both GFS and ECMWF is in quite good agreement in developing a very intense heat wave early next week, with 16 to almost 20 °C warmer temperatures at 850 mbar level lasting until the weekend.

This could possibly push near-surface peak afternoon temperatures into low 30s across S England and upper 30s (36-40 °C) across parts of France, Benelux and Germany from Tuesday through Saturday!
Let us take a look over the latest trends based on the GFS model across western Europe." SWE

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/update-on-the-intense-heat-wave-next-week-much-above-normal-temperatures-will-develop-across-west-central-europe-june-24-30th-2019/

duncan124:

I think I have remembered another problem with the idea that extra NCLs follow extra water in the atmosphere.

There is famous published research that shows that the water in the NCLs has been there for at least a year and there are certain times when it steps up in to the Mesosphere.

So while Spaceweather has shown there is a lot more water about how and when it is going to reach the Mesosphere should be carefully looked in to.

A lot more water high in the cold atmosphere could well cause a Mini Ice Age there at least.

The research ended with a look at how the weight of the water wizzing around so high up altered the weather, or at least the wind strengths and direction. But the solution to that problem was going to be in another paper.

duncan124:

33 days without sunspots makes 2019 creep in to the history books ahead of 2009 which had a 32 day spotless stretch.

If '19 holds on for another two days then it will have equalled with 1867.

Anything over 40 will put us into the top ten and 55 will give us bronze with only the Edwardians ahead of us.

smokemeblind: what makes you so sure co2 can be ruled out?