Mini Ice Age? (Page 4)
" CHILLING WARNING The face of the Sun has 'gone blank' and Planet Earth could be heading for an ICE AGE " The Sun, et al.
Several newspapers now report on the Suns quietness. It hasn't been this quiet for 100 years.
ghostgeek: I seem to remember somebody saying summers would be hot and dry. Just shows you can't believe pointy headed experts.
Other expert views;-
“During solar minimum, the opposite occurs. Solar flares are almost non-existent while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to break the monotony of the blank sun. This is what we are experiencing now.”
Given that the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate, the sinister-sounding “blankness” to which Mr Dorian refers has some experts predicting a “Maunder Minimum” phase similar to one which began in 1645 and which is referred to as the “Little Ice Age”.
The Maunder Minimum, named after solar astronomer Edward Maunder, lasted for a brutal 70 years and was so cold the Thames froze over.
A slightly less intense ice age-like period called the Dalton Minimum — after British Meteorologist John Dalton — arrived decades later and lasted from about 1790 to 1830.
“If history is any guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottommost layer of Earth’s atmosphere — and where we all live,” Mr Dorian says.
Mr Dorian’s findings back research by professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, who warned that a predicted sharp decline in solar activity between 2020 and 2050 was a sign another ice age was coming.
“I am absolutely confident in our research,” Prof Zharkova said.
From " Little Ice Age " by Michael E Mann
"The term Little Ice Age was originally coined by F Matthes
in 1939 to describe the most recent 4000 year climatic
interval (the Late Holocene) associated with a particularly
dramatic series of mountain glacier advances and retreats,
analogous to, though considerably more moderate than, the
Pleistocene glacial fluctuations."
" The term Little Ice Age is, instead, reserved for the most
extensive recent period of mountain glacier expansion and is
conventionally defined as the 16th–mid 19th century period
during which European climate was most strongly impacted "
" While parts of eastern North America and
Europe experienced notable cooling, the observation that
other regions, including the western US and the Middle
East, appear, in fact, to have been warmer than usual is
consistent with a hypothesized relationship between volcanic
forcing of climate and the response of the North
The longer-term variations, and in particular
cooler temperatures during the 17th century and
warmer temperatures during the 18th century were likely
to have been related to a concomitant increase in solar
output by the Sun by approximately 0.25% following the
Maunder Minimum of the 17th century (Lean et al., 1995;
Mann et al., 1998) (see Maunder Minimum, Volume 1).
Finally, changes in the ocean circulation (e.g., the Gulf
Stream) of the North Atlantic, and associated impacts
on North Atlantic storm tracks, may have emphasized
temperature changes in Europe."
So if leaving the MM in the 18th C with 0.25% increase in activity caused warmer weather a decrease in activity by 0.25% would reverse that change to a colder climate?
ghostgeek: Anyway, here is some good news. The Antarctic Ozone Hole is on the mend. Penguins can breathe easy.
High and fine clouds caused by the lack of sun spots and CMEs can be observed.
NASA and Spaceweather.com have been watching the skies for signs of the effects of the solar calm but seem to have forgotten the most easily visible changes.
Frosts effect wine production. I think these are air frosts.
"In Burgundy, producers were still assessing the damage and more detailed reports should emerge in the next week.
‘Such a frost is unseen since 1981 and it could have consequences not only on the yields of the Burgundy 2016 harvest but also on the yields of 2017,’ Caroline Parent-Gros, of Domaine AF Gros in Pommard, told Decanter.com.
As with hailstorms, which have repeatedly hit Burgundy in recent years, the effects of frost can be patchy from vineyard to vineyard."
Watch out tonight for noctilucent clouds across Europe!
" NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS DESCEND TO MID-LATITUDES: "
" Observers saw them in other European countries, too: Sweden, England, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Hungary and Romania. The sighting in Romania is significant because of its latitude--only 46 degrees. This means the clouds have spread south to mid-latitudes. " Spaceweather.com
So what are we really facing in Mini Ice Age.
Colder winters and wetter summers with an increased risk of disrupted weather due to other events and to periods of warmer, colder or drier weather due to decreased change in the weather patterns. Mostly colder weather.
Weather patterns , anticyclones and wind direction play an important role in determining the weather. A cold spell could be mitigated by other weather patterns as well as made worse by an unchanging weather system.
Longer air and ground frosts. Perhaps lasting for a month with deeper frost levels in to the ground and sea ice around the coast.
The spread of diseases alters a lot with changes in temperature and humidity. Places where humans found conditions acceptable may well change to being dangerous and behaviour learned over the last decade may have to be changed again bringing winners and losers to commercial activities. The value of your property may go down as a result.
There was a lot of research done in the cold winters of the 1980s but that is now a closed book to us. I remember going to Gravesend by train to see the sea ice and staying all night on the Embankment to watch the ice form despite the provos.
As can be seen from the temperature records it is only a degree or so less that makes a frozen winter and the wind and rain can turn cold weather in to a big freeze.
Some examples from Mean England Temps 1659-1973 by Gordon Manley
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2.7 2.1 3.9 6.6 9.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 11.8 10.3 3.9 3.1
Year without a summer.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
3.8 4.1 6.4 8.9 12.8 16.1 15.1 15.0 13.1 10.3 7.3 3.9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-2.7 -0.7 6.0 8.7 10.6 14.9 15.2 14.3 12.9 11.1 8.2 2.6
Thames froze over
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-2.9 1.4 2.9 9.6 9.2 12.2 16.0 14.7 12.8 8.1 4.7 4.3
Thames froze over
Rounded to 0.5 0C
" They are using you against you! " But interesting graphs of various cycles which all indicate a cold time ahead.
“There is something at work in my soul, which I do not understand.”
― Mary Shelley, Frankenstein
Spaceweather keeps looking at noctilucent clouds above Europe.
Today its France, where the state caused a heat wave.
Are we going to see the Otterwalks Peace Prize??
" So what are we really facing in Mini Ice Age? "
It seems that storms--and by that I think they mean thunder storms-- are more likely based on science from the LIA.
" During the LIA, there was a high frequency of storms. As the cooler air began to move southward, the polar jet stream strengthened and followed, which directed a higher number of storms into the region. At least four sea floods of the Dutch and German coasts in the thirteenth century were reported to have caused the loss of around 100,000 lives. Sea level was likely increased by the long-term ice melt during the MWP which compounded the flooding. Storms that caused greater than 100,000 deaths were also reported in 1421, 1446, and 1570. Additionally, large hailstorms that wiped out farmland and killed great numbers of livestock occurred over much of Europe due to the very cold air aloft during the warmer months. Due to severe erosion of coastline and high winds, great sand storms developed which destroyed farmlands and reshaped coastal land regions. "
" During the LIA, there was a high frequency of storms." Is a mantra many sites repeat and they put the blame on the Jet stream.
---gives an in depth view of the ideas.
ghostgeek: Remember this:
"A freak shift in weather patterns will send thermometers rocketing to 30C (86F) in early June with THREE MONTHS of blazing sunshine to follow.
And the latest weather models suggest the highest ever UK temperature of 38.5C (101F) could be beaten in just weeks kicking off the "Great Summer" of 2016."
[ http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/672361/Hottest-summer-in-100-years-UK-weather-forecast-2016-heatwave ]
Well now we have an update:
A mixed summer looks likely with conditions frequently changing between dry and warm, to cool, showery or wet. The second half of summer may become more unsettled with signals for La Nina to develop, which is highly associated with poor UK Summers. Temperatures overall will most likely come in at around average to slightly above average.
[ http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-summer-weather-forecast-2016-latest/ ]
It seemd one of the strongest El Niño events on record has strongly influenced weather patterns around the globe for the past couple of years. However, as El Niño dissipates and La Niña conditions take its place, we’ll be entering a period of transition in global weather patterns over the next few months. And as there is a strong association with La Nina and poor UK Summers, I'm thinking there's no point expecting a long run of good weather any time soon.
" THREE MONTHS of blazing sunshine" sounds nice.Warm and wet weather suits the plants very well.
However the Met office has said that wet weather in Asia and its effect on North America has been the start of storms effecting the UK.
Super Typhoon "Nepartak" and others have all appeared in the last few days so we could be in for another lot of storms in the winter.
Blazing sunshine! Rah, Rah Rah!
With little wind to disturb the skies when then weather tipped over in to sunshine it is going to perform like it should.
Of course, in a cold spell if the same happened then it could tip over in to prolonged wintery weather too.
High and fine clouds visible too as beautiful backdrop to this wonderful season.
Warmest year on record so far!!
" Two key climate change indicators -- global surface temperatures and Arctic sea ice extent -- have broken numerous records through the first half of 2016, according to NASA analyses of ground-based observations and satellite data.
Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century. "
Heat Dome in the USA.
" As expected, a large and strong upper air High (‘Heat Dome’) has formed over the central US and is already bringing some of the hottest WX since 2013 to portions of the central US – including the Midwest and eventually the East through most of the weekend on into next week – though the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will likely cool down to normal by Sunday/Monday. (Temps of 90˚-100˚ are expected in Chicago starting today and continuing through SAT – and possibly SUN - the longest such stretch of heat in at least 3 years.) "
ghostgeek: In the second half of the 20th century, “the place that’s warmed the most was the Antarctic Peninsula,” said John Turner, a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey. “It’s a real hotspot of warming across the Earth.”
Now, however, Turner and a team of fellow scientists with the survey are out with a rather unexpected new finding in the journal Nature — one likely to be seized on by climate change skeptics, doubters and deniers. Since about 1998, the research finds, the Antarctic Peninsula has reversed this famous trend and cooled down again, and done so fairly significantly.
[ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/07/20/the-antarctic-peninsula-is-cooling-but-climate-skeptics-shouldnt-get-too-excited/ ]
So maybe its a Mini Ice Age against the backdrop of a return to ancient temperatures??
Bradley sums up the arguments very clearly.
" It is often stated that climate in Medieval time was warm, or warmer than “today”.
Such a statement might seem innocuous – a mere scientific curiosity -- but it has
wider significance. For those opposed to action on global warming, the climate in
Medieval time has become a cause célèbre.
" The concept of a “Medieval Warm Epoch” (MWE) was first articulated by H.H.
Lamb in 1965. Lamb based his argument almost exclusively on a subjective
interpretation of historical anecdotes and paleoclimatic data from western Europe,
which he used to construct indices of “summer wetness” and “winter severity”. From
these he found evidence for warm, dry summers and mild winters centered around
Indeed there seems to be no argument against a MWE except those of prejudice.
People have hated at medieval times in writing and seemed to have caused a world view based on the Victorian notions of cold and stern human relations and so also the weather. Eliminating modern experience of the conditions of humans.
The solar quiet might bring cold winters but from historic records it won't be much colder then it has been in solar noisey times.