Mini Ice Age? (Page 28)
Storms in Malta at the weekend. Feb 24th, 2019.
Snow in Greece.
"The temperature reached 20.3C (68.5F) at Trawsgoed in Ceredigion, west Wales, on Monday, the UK's warmest February day on record, beating the previous record of 19.7C (67.4F) recorded in Greenwich in 1998" Daily Telegraph.
(Edited by duncan124)
The Polar Vortex has continued to cause trouble with Bombogenesis in the North Atlantic and storms in the Mediterranean.
The broken circuit seems to have fallen down and caused major weather events where it has touched down. Low pressures, record winds and heat.
" Spotless Days. Current Stretch: 28 days. 2019 total: 43 days (73%)" Spaceweather.
Percentage so far exceeds the 2009 total. If this rate keeps up it will be a powerful record.
Those hunting cycle 25 expect it to start later this year. Perhaps in the last quarter.
" Wildfires " return to the UK on Tuesday 26th of February. Less pleasing to the Portuguese is the fact they are outlawed and classed as made by the state.
It is more of a historical record of the destruction of the local humanity than a reflection on the record winter heat.
Dr.Cohen writes "As I have written many times in the blog this fall and winter season the influence of a significant stratospheric PV disruption typically lasts on the order of four to eight weeks.
It certainly looks like the PV split from early January has gone the distance and has persisted for a full eight weeks or possibly even a little longer.
Based on the latest polar cap geopotential heights (PCHs) forecast the whole event is winding down over the next week or so.
Therefore, I think that we can start to draft the obituary for this event." February 25, 2019
I think the SPV event is far from over and don't expect the PV to return to its " normal " state before next winter even if it does then.
At the moment it seems to be in an elongated state and little different from a split PV.
The coupling mechanism worked but not to the same layers of the atmosphere is a good argument and could be the cause of the crash.
The shrinking atmosphere is the probable cause of the PVs difficulties and, as you read here first, the height of the ground above sea level is a significant factor in the temperatures and wind.
Dr Cohen writes "The stratospheric PV is currently centered over the Laptev Sea (Figure 12). The coldest temperatures in the stratosphere are focused in Northern Siberia and Western Canada and seems to be co-located with the coldest temperatures at the surface. Based on the stratospheric anomalies the cold may continue to be focused in these same regions as well during the remainder of the month of February and into early March."
This seems to be an important feature if the top of the atmosphere is cooling and shrinking.
Northern Siberia and Western Canada both have a vortex at only a slightly lower level than the PV and seem to be stretching the PV.
Russian scientists have found why these two areas " Northern Siberia and Western Canada " are likely to form stable air but unfortunately, these ideas are not available on the Internet.
The biggest feature of the 2019 SPV was the crash into the North Atlantic of what looked like extremely cold space cooled air from the PV causing Bombogenesis and severe record storms in the Mediterranean.
I remember from studies years ago that an elongated PV was caused by a heating element.
US government web pages put the extra heat over northwest Canada at the end of the longer sides of the vortex.
That is to say, the high winds that circle in the Polar Vortex in EarthNullschools weather imaging now range along the West side of the Former USA. While the eye of the vortex stays over the seas north of Siberia.
It is likely these high winds will cause major storms in the mid-latitudes.
The weekend storm, starting 02.03.19.
"A major winter storm with an array of hazards will impact much of the country this weekend, the National Weather Service warns. The storm will cross California, the Great Basin and central Rocky Mountains today, March 2 delivering heavy rain to lower elevations and heavy snow to the mountains. It will then quickly shift across the eastern half of the country on Sunday, March 3 with areas of heavy snow, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. This event is followed by another blast of frigid Arctic air which will bring temperatures up to 28 °C (50 °F) below average for the time of the year over the Northern Plains into the Central Plains. Posted by Teo Blašković on March 2, 2019 at 20:55 UTC " The Watchers.
The dysfunctional Polar Vortex in the first week in March seems to have caused a freezing storm to move quickly across America.
In the last three days the centre of the PV has moved back to the pole from its position north of Siberia in what looks like a powerful rebalancing action.
But in the meantime the PV winds have created a vast cyclone in the North Atlantic.
See previous posts about the warm air from Africa and the Equator which was causing the warm Summer last year.
Will the long summer happen again this year and will also a SSW or MWW happen again next winter to destabilise and split the PV??
And cause a Mini Ice Age in some parts of the world?
Which will continue for at least the coming Grand Solar Minimum?
Odds??? I'ed give 40/60 and maybe 50/50 if the summer starts hot or wet.
" The positive PCHs in the lower stratosphere appear to be related to downward propagation of circulation anomalies related to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and a major mid-winter warming (MMW; where the zonal mean zonal wind reverses from westerly to easterly at 60°N and 10 hPa) back in early January. Based on the latest PCH plot it does look as if any influence from the SSW in early January on the atmospheric circulation will finally come to an end this first week of March. It has been shown previously that the impact of the SSW on the weather can be from four to eight weeks. I would argue that the influence of the SSW on our weather likely went the full eight weeks, at least across North America. " Dr Cohen, AER.
Dr Cohen now admits that the SPV was reflected though out the atmosphere it was in touch with.
European weather is dominated by a trough.
"Europe is divided in two halves, a large deep trough is located over N Europe while ridging dominates S Europe" SWE
And no one from Officialdom wants to talk about the PVs sister vortex over the Atlantic
" Thermosphere Climate Index today: 4.06x1010 W Cold "Spaceweather 09.03.19
The index rose rapidly I think to about 3.96 before falling back again ;-
"Thermosphere Climate Index today: 3.96x1010 W Cold" Spaceweather 14.02.19" page 27
The index was rising more rapidly than today's temp reveals and if that rate was kept up would be much higher today.
The Thermosphere Climat Index measures the outer layer of atmosphere and the index seems to reveal that SSW and MMW both could have altered the temp of the Thermosphere and that the atmosphere as a whole is not such a good protector against spaceweather.
Rainy weekend research.
"The Celestial Sign in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle in the 770s: Insights on Contemporary Solar Activity"
Red or white crucifixes in the sky are quite common in the UK when the sun is lower or at night and it has rained or there are deep clouds in some parts of the sky. I have seen a number of these, red and white.
Space weather is reaching the lower layers of our atmosphere as the Minimum digs in.
The new vortex over the North Atlantic appeared just after the bombogenesis and storms in the videos above and seems to be another response to the event which also caused those events.
While the PV managed to unconfuse itself and moved to be centered at the pole other traits seem to be connected to the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean.
The Hunt For Cycle 25.
The Next Grand Minimum looks at the pundits. Unfortunately, we have seen the "scientists from India" before and even NASA was expecting Cycle 25 to start before now.
25 is now allowed at the end of 2019 or the start of 2020!!
"An intense cyclone will develop a dangerous windstorm across the N Atlantic and towards the British Isles and Ireland tomorrow, March 12th By SWE | Mesoscale Discussion | 11 March 2019
A very dangerous cyclone has developed over the North Atlantic today. It is expected to intensify tonight and develop an intense windstorm with gusts near 200 km/h over parts of N Atlantic tomorrow;" SWE
There has been some weather to break the Solar Minimum quiet for a few days but it is windy now. This sudden deterioration must be a result of the PV and its Atlantic vortex.
SWEs quick report yesterday seem to show that the high weather has been ignored.
Dr. Cohen at AER writes,
"Though the stratospheric PV split back in early January has dominated the PV behavior this winter, there have been other more minor PV disruptions back in November and early December.
Those minor PV disruptions are referred to as “reflective’ disruptions as the vertical energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere rather than being absorbed in the polar stratosphere, which is typical leading up to a major mid-winter warming (MMW; where the zonal mean zonal wind reverses from westerly to easterly at 60°N and 10 hPa), the energy is reflected back down into the troposphere.
These events are characterized by warming and ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered near Alaska with an elongation of the stratospheric PV into eastern North America. Similar behavior is predicted for the stratospheric PV for next week (see Figure i). This is quickly followed by ridging in Alaska and downstream troughing across central and eastern North America in the tropsphere. With these events the cold temperature anomalies are centered in central and eastern North America."
While this is generally in accord with the events I have described in the posts above Dr Cohen has decided to only talk about the reflective disruptions.
The PV elongated all the way past LA, California due to a heater in Alaska and western Canada. Which in the end crashed the PV causing bombogenesis off the coast of America.
The PV has now formed a complete circle around the pole, but even so, Dr. Cohen predicts a reflective disruption and more cold for the former US.
Big yawn from Thewatchers.
"Cyclone of historic proportions' hits U.S., sets barometric pressure records, strands over 1 100 drivers and leaves nearly 200 000 without power" The watchers.
Computers from the Former USA still abide with the "No, bad things never happen here" until there is in place a dysfunctional human reaction to a managed lesser event.
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
"A rapidly deepening cyclone was passing across the northern parts of the British Isles early on Saturday, tracking towards the North Sea. It is expected to further rapidly deepen, to a mean sea level pressure between 960 and 970 mbar early on Sunday, as it tracks from the North Sea into south Norway and towards south Sweden." SWE
It is windy today but not much more than that except the wind howls around the buildings.
Is it Solar Minimum weather? And are these storms going to get longer as the minimum deepens??
kittybobo34: As the world warms the storms get bigger. The contrast becomes greater in the Northern latitudes too
But not all the world is warming, a lot of it is far colder. So there is not only that contrast but also there seems to be less weather happening most of the time. There is little breeze more often and less rain.
kittybobo34: Local weather is insignificant, it's the over all average that means something. The world as a whole is warmer, Glaciers are retreating, Polar ice is half what it was just 20 years ago. Once that ice is gone, there is no heat sink for the really hot temperatures, which means a warmer ocean.
There are several cycles in the earths rotation around the sun that strongly effect the weather. Those cycles are effected by the eccentricity of our orbit, the tilt of the planet etc.. giving us a 105,000 year ice age, a 10,000 year warm period, and a smaller 500 year cycle that shifts the average temperature a couple of degrees ether way. We started down the path of a return to the ice age almost a 1000 years ago, but have suddenly turned warm and seem to be accelerating in that warm direction, with an assist from the 500 year cycle.
If this keeps up at this pace, we will see major changes in the overall climate in the next 10-20 years.