Mini Ice Age? (Page 26)

duncan124:
It seems the Polar Vortex been unified and as I predicted a few posts above it is much weaker and is " falling back in to place and involves stormy weather as the high winds in effect drop down to lower altitudes. "

As a hunch, I would say this cold in and around Greece, Italy and the Balkans is corresponding to the changes in the polar vortex.

Indeed the increase in dynamic in the Mediterranian corridor, storms, cold even volcanoes and meteors seems incredibly to be a result of these atmospheric changes.

Just as the Mediterranian slowly developed these weather events the North Atlantic has been steadily getting more dynamic with many storms.

duncan124:
Dr Cohen summarizes the PV from last week.

"Currently the stratospheric PV has broken into several pieces or daughter vortices. The major daughter vortex is centered near Scandinavia and a minor daughter vortex is centered over Quebec and New England with a possible third daughter vortex over the North Pacific with ridging and accompanying warming centered in the Beaufort Sea (Figure 12). The daughter vortex over Scandinavia is predicted to drift west and further split into two with one vortex over Northwest Russia and another over Western Europe with the other vortex over Quebec and New England drifting west into Central Canada."

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

duncan124:
Predicted snowfall for some parts of the British Isles shows topdown inland pattern while much of Europe has been under snow for several days we are told.

Evidence of the Medieval Warm Period came from Eastern Europe which does n't benefit from any oceanic warming so any warming would have been based on atmospheric insulation in what was not a solar warm time.

duncan124:

The Polar Vortex has returned to its two split positions and increased in strength again with high winds visible on Nullschool.

It seems the appearance of reunification was due to the drop in wind strength as the PV lost unity and the winds went south.

What is going to happen next??

The PV was split by warming and I guess then fell into three vortexes as the warming continued and the energy went into the south but by now the PV should be going strong and indeed the two vortexes have associated equatorial high winds which if the same happened again could seriously weaken the PVs.

Leading to a Year Without A PV? What happens when the PV doesn't work??

duncan124:
Dr Cohen writes on AER,

"This was followed up by winter 2014/15. That winter, there was what I would consider a more classic and significant PV disruption and split in early January and exactly two weeks later the most intense period of winter weather of my lifetime that I have ever experienced commenced. .....
.... In both winter of 2013/14 and 2014/15 the stratospheric PV was disrupted, which projected onto the tropospheric PV or circulation, severe winter weather was observed in the Central and Eastern US all consistent with a negative AO/NAM but the problem is that the AO/NAM was neutral to positive."

"What to expect the rest of winter. This has been an extreme winter in the stratosphere, but no one will remember this winter other than a handful stratospheric dynamicists if that is the whole story. But the extreme circulation anomalies need to successfully propagate down to at least the mid-troposphere to have a meaningful impact on the weather. As I said earlier, I would argue the coupling has already begun and it will continue even sporadically or episodically ........

.....That winter it took until March for the most positive PCHs to reach the mid to lower troposphere and it could take a while for something similar to occur. I for one am not expecting winter’s last hurrah to be this weekend."

Dr Cohen has diagrams of the three vortexes from earlier in the week.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

In other words, we are going to bounce through the first quarter and as the Solar Activity is not picking up it is going to get colder in the upper atmosphere. Indeed spotless days are at 59% despite SWs claims to see the end of the Minimum.

duncan124:
As the cold starts to bite wouldn't you like to live in Australia??

"Extreme heat across parts of Australia will continue and even intensify through the next 4-6 days, Jan 20-26thBy SWE

The ongoing extreme heat wave across a large part of Australia is expected to continue into mid next week – mid-afternoon temperatures will peak into 46-49 °C on each day again! "

Is the Sun getting stronger? Are there fewer clouds in the sky??

duncan124:
The next major event to look forward to is the record-breaking hot summer like we had last year.

I seem to remember Dr. Cohen saying people connect SPVs with warm weather later on, but not always!

As it was Sudden Stratospheric Warming that caused the split it is a good guess that we are in for some more of the same. Which seems logical as we are seeing overall cooling so any anomalous warming in a less powered cooling atmosphere is going to have significant effects.

A single Sunspot has broken the longish run of spotless days, 14 out of 21 Spaceweather says.

duncan124:
Bouncing through to spring. America throwing off blobs of cold as the northern atmosphere swirls as much as the southern can be seen to do but without the circle of water.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FearlessShimmeringBushsqueaker-mobile.mp4

duncan124:

Thermosphere Climate Index dropped from 3.61x1010 W Cold to today: 3.19x1010 W Cold.

Today being the 22.01.19 and the previous was fourteen days ago. See page 25.

Maybe the data is Northern biased or maybe the landmasses make a bigger difference than expected. The rest of the world seems to be getting quite hot so I don't know why the drop.

kittybobo34: Perhaps because its winter in the north.

duncan124:
The index must be for the whole planet and if there were any seasonal variations I thought they would have said.

The north has more temperate landscapes but two-thirds of the world is ocean anyway.

I read in NASAs notes that the index follows the most prominent feature, either solar irradiance at solar max or geomagnetic disturbance at solar minimum.

SO and others did seem to say that the suns magnetic forces have been fairly low so perhaps that is why?

kittybobo34: ahhh the world may be 2/3 water, but the north is more 1/2 land

kittybobo34: which holds heat reflecting snow.

Fog Swept Glade: Neat

duncan124:
It is only the oceans that are keeping Europe from freezing with the big continents.

"Extreme cold, another storm follow major Northeast winter storm
Posted by Teo Blašković on January 21, 2019 "

"Extreme cold warnings cover almost all of Ontario and Quebec, Canada
Posted by Teo Blašković on January 21, 2019 " The Watchers

"Russia down to nearly -60 °C, Australia scorching at nearly 50 °C – January 18, 2019" SWE

Looking at Nullschool and Windy.com it is obvious that it is the places close to the water that are the warmest now.

How long the oceans are still heat reservoirs before the hot and cold currents separate around the freezing coasts causing sea ice to form is probably still a secret.

Interestingly, both Nullschool and Windy.com predicted snow in the UK at this time but then changed the forecast for warmer weather till the weekend.

duncan124:

Frozen puddles today mean that the cold has got down to the ground.

Looking at Nullschool and especially Windy.com the recorded wind speed is greater than actually perceived at the time at low levels.

Zero is the most common speed on the ground and even at treetop level and unbroken skies, either clouds or blue sky most often mean little wind.

If the air gets cold it's not going to go away without wind.

duncan124:

Thermosphere Climate Index rebounds from 3.18 to today: 3.31x1010 W Cold in around 24 hours.

A lot of heating, a lot of wind, a very hot spot??

duncan124:
This must be the start of a Mini Ice Age in the Former USA.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/an-exceptional-arctic-outbreak-is-forecast-for-north-and-northeast-united-states-next-week-jan-29-31st/

Notice that the cold goes directly to the south where the radar anomalies were spotted a short time ago. Indicating that there is already dramatic changes in the landscape this year.

As there is already suspicion of underground water movements ( causing the radar anomalies) this freezing cold is going to alter a lot of what remains above ground.

I think there could be slumping though out the " Middle Mud " from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.

duncan124:

2018 fourth hottest year since 1850.researchers claim.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0125/1025407-climate/

kittybobo34: Can't wait to see how hot it will get in the coming years. According to geologists, the last global warming, the average temp. was in the nature of 55c

duncan124:
Extremes of temperature are to be expected in a Solar Minimum as less energy means less energy to dissipate types of weather.

Spaceweather is pondering the end of this Solar Cycle and the start of the next.

"SOLAR FLARE! Yesterday, Jan. 26th at 13:22 UT, the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2733 exploded, producing the strongest solar flare in nearly a year. "

Only a day before it was saying this sunspot was from the old solar cycle ( probably due to its position, I think)

Now the sunspot has become more energized strangely coincidental to a Luna eclipse. The words Sign, Potent, Omen come to mind rather than the next Solar Cycle; but that is what is going to start happening with or without a clear beginning.

And the next cycle is not going to be as strong as this one scientists have decided as the suns other major cycles are turned downward.


.

duncan124:
Spaceweather.com has updated its paragraph about AR2733.

"WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: On Saturday, Jan. 26th, sunspot AR2733 unleashed a C5-class solar flare--the strongest solar flare since Feb. 7, 2018. AR2733 is a member of decaying Solar Cycle 24; perhaps the explosion was the last gasp of the old solar cycle. "

The update ends with the Newstype, "The sunspot has since quieted and is now turning away from Earth."

Spaceweather has also updated its NEO colour warnings to red about 2019 BV1, on the
2019-Jan-24, which was 0.4 LD away and had 14.4 speed, and was 7m wide.

duncan124:
"NWS: One of the coldest Arctic air intrusions in recent memory, widespread record lows expected, U.S" TheWatchers.

https://watchers.news/2019/01/28/extreme-cold-united-states-january-2019/

Long animation shows the bounces.

duncan124:

Record lows set as Former USA suffers arctic temps.

" All-time record low temperatures set as extremely cold air invades Midwest, U.S." Thewatchers et al.