"How Revolutions Happen -By Dr Mark Almond Comrade_: Revolutions can be short and bloody, or slow and peaceful. Each is different, though there are recurring patterns - including some that were on show in Egypt. Trotsky once remarked that if poverty was the cause of revolutions, there would be revolutions all the time because most people in the world were poor. What is needed to turn a million people's grumbling discontent into a crowd on the streets is a spark to electrify them. Violent death has been the most common catalyst for radicalising discontent in the revolutions of the last 30 years. Sometimes the spark is grisly, like the mass incineration of hundreds in an Iranian cinema in 1978 blamed on the Shah's secret police. Sometimes the desperate act of a single suicidally inflammatory protester like vegetable salesman Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia, in December 2010, catches the imagination of a country. Even rumours of brutality, such as the claims the Communist secret police had beaten two students to death in Prague in November, 1989, can fire up a public already deeply disillusioned with the system. Reports that Milosevic had had his predecessor, Ivan Stambolic, "disappeared" in the weeks before the Yugoslav presidential elections in 2000 helped to crystallise Serbian rejection of his regime. Chinese template Death - though in this case non-violent - also played a role in China in April 1989, when students in Beijing hijacked the officially-sponsored mourning for the former Communist leader, Hu Yaobang, to occupy Tiananmen Square and protest against the Party's corruption and dictatorship But although the Chinese crisis set the template for how to stage protests and occupy symbolic city-centre squares, it also was the most obvious failure of "People Power". Unlike other elderly dictators, Deng Xiaoping showed energy and skill in striking back at the protesters. His regime had made a billion Chinese peasants better off. They were the soldiers sent to shoot down the crowds. Protests against Suharto's "re-election" in Indonesia in March 1998, culminated in the shooting of four students in May, which set off a round of bigger demonstrations and more violence until more than 1,000 were dead. Thirty years earlier Suharto could kill hundreds of thousands with impunity. But corruption and the Asian economic crisis had imploded support for his regime. After 32 years in power, his family and their cronies were too rich, while too many former backers were getting poorer - a poverty they shared with ordinary people. What collapses a regime is when insiders turn against it. So long as police, army and senior officials think they have more to lose by revolution than by defending a regime, then even mass protests can be defied and crushed. Remember Tiananmen Square. But if insiders and the men with guns begin to question the wisdom of backing a regime - or can be bought off - then it implodes quickly. Tunisia's Ben Ali decided to flee when his generals told him they would not shoot into the crowds. In Romania, in December, 1989, Ceausescu lived to see the general he relied on to crush the protesters become his chief judge at his trial on Christmas Day. External pressure plays a role in completing regime-change. In 1989, the refusal of the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, to use the Red Army to back East European Communists facing protests in the streets made the local generals realise that force was not an option. The United States has repeatedly pressed its authoritarian allies to compromise and then, once they have started on that slippery slope, to resign. Comrade_: Sclerosis Longevity of a regime and especially the old age of a ruler can result in a fatal incapacity to react to events quickly. Revolutions are 24-hour-a day events - they require stamina and quick thinking from both protesters and dictators. An elderly inflexible but ailing leader contributes to the crisis. From the cancer-stricken Shah of Iran via the ailing Honecker in East Germany to Indonesia's Suharto, decades in power had encouraged a political sclerosis which made nimble political manoeuvres impossible. As Egypt reminds, revolutions are made by the young. Graceful exits are rare in revolutions, but the offer of secure retirement can speed up and smooth the change. In 2003, Georgia's Shevardnadze was denounced by some as a "Ceausescu" but he was let alone in his villa after he resigned. Suharto's generals had ensured he retired to die in peace a decade later - but his son "Tommy" was imprisoned. Often there is a hunger among people to punish the fallen rulers. Their successors, too, find retribution against the old leader can be a useful distraction from the economic and social problems, which don't disappear with the change of regime. Oxford historian Mark Almond is the author of Uprising - Political Upheavals that have Shaped the World. Comrade_: An open opinion Poll: Is Revolution better than Foreign intervention, to promote political change? A) Foreign intervention B) Revolution C) Neither D) Both E) Other (please state) (if you wish to give your opinion, please do it brief & summarize long quotes)  davidk14: . Dang Outback! Trying to keep up with all your posts. Where have you been anyway? Perhaps too much time in the bush? . Outbackjack: Yes too much time in the bush.But you better be quick as the wild is calling me and its a nice beautiful Sunday for an Emu Export after a BBQ.   FogofWar: "My point (since I have a mind of my own, and need not copy & paste)" Ironic that you, having wasted such breath complaining about me using 'copy and paste' resort to doing so. Comrade_: I wouldn't expect you to know the difference between showing an article (as I did) and "copy & pasting" someone else's opinion off the internet for your own view (as you do) ...but then again, you're only here to gain a little attention and not really contribute to the thread, right. Good dumbass to ignore FogofWar: You mean copy and paste like I do huh? Like the articles that I have posted here as well? Funny, I contribute on the same level as everyone else....in your case; the same as you. You don't like it, then try not doing it to others. Comrade_: You came to this thread to moan sparky? Please note I'm not interested in your little feelings being hurt. Now run along and copy & paste someone's opinion off a debate. I know you want to. (Post deleted by staff ) Comrade_: Showing an article is very different from copy & pasting someone's points on a debate. Must I teach you the basics, Frog? You post a debate topic, but you didn't post your own view of the debate or gave the person the praise (via posting their name). You simply copied and pasted the entire points of the person. http://www.wireclub.com/Forums/ViewTopic.aspx?ForumId=772986&ParentId=1340926&Page=0 I checked the website you got your information from, I know that everything you copied & paste were from the person's response to the debate topic. Not your own opinion or research. Yet you didn't acknowledge that person's name. This is an article, I stated the original writer of the said article. Do you get the point?...if you don't then go complain about being hurt somewhere else, this thread has a purpose. Gracias Comrade_: Colin, I'm not sure if 'most' are. But a revolution starts mostly from within. It can start with simple things, and the tension breaks. (Post deleted by staff ) FogofWar: "Showing an article is very different from copy & pasting someone's points on a debate." You mean like the countless articles that I have posted in which you whined about me always copying and pasting; even though far fewer of my posts are articles; or other's statements than are of my own? "You post a debate topic, but you didn't post your own view of the debate or gave the person the praise (via posting their name)." And you posted your views? Yes, in fact; I did post my own views; and not only that; I also posted the very site in which the debate came from; so yes; I did provide who the debate was from; and where the sources came. "I checked the website you got your information from, I know that everything you copied & paste were from the person's response to the debate topic. Not your own opinion or research. Yet you didn't acknowledge that person's name." First post I made: This is not my debate; but I saw this posted in another forum; it had compelling arguments. Then before I posted the first round of the debate; I stated: Like I said; I did not come up with this topic; it was taken from debate.org. It is a very informative and thoughtful topic however. So yes; I did infect provide the information on who the debate was from; and where it was. Anyone can go ahead and check it out. You on the other hand; did not post where you got the article from. :O "This is an article, I stated the original writer of the said article." As I provided the source of the debate in which I posted. Unfortunately; as I stated it was a debate on a social media site; there is no actual name for who posted the info; and his screenname doesn't really have any relevance; the location of the debate was posted. Perhaps you would like to comment on the countless other articles that I posted; in which I provided the name of the author; their field of expertise; and their level of education on the topic; that you continually whined about me "copying and pasting"? FogofWar: Colin; if you look at the roots of virtually every modern revolution you can see foreign involvement. Comrade_: hmm, no that's an interesting point, but it means that most revolutions must result to benefit the US? Example the Iran (1979) revolution "overthrew a puppet regime of the United States" -taken from Wikipedia. To know if it revolutions were started by the CIA first the country needs supporters (oppressed, poor, youths who want change) but the end result must benifit the US or have their interest met in the outcome. There must be factors already in play, which is beyond the CIA. I'm stating this in my opinion. Comrade_: Frog, I state this for a second time: you're on my Ignore list, I don't debate with dumbasses who have no mind of their own or those who take 101 ways to 'win' an online debate courses. Gracias, waste someone else's time. FogofWar: Caveman's response to my personal statement based on experience in the Canadian Forces and our involvement in Afghanistan; from the topic http://www.wireclub.com/Forums/ViewTopic.aspx?ForumId=772986&ParentId=1349857&Page=1: Your job of copying and pasting and googling..yes we know mate (Post deleted by staff ) | Politics Chat Room 59 People Chatting Similar Conversations |
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